EU SUMMIT:EU LEADERS will meet to try to agree a timeline for the resolution of what diplomats are now calling the "Irish situation" at a summit in Brussels today.
After an initial outburst of anger and disbelief following Irish voters rejection of the Lisbon Treaty, the EU is now regrouping around a message of respect for the Irish vote but also a need to find a solution by mid-2009.
Unlike in 2005 when France and The Netherlands rejected the EU constitution in popular votes, there is a deliberate attempt by senior politicians to avoid the word “crisis” in discussions. Diplomats say that EU leaders will agree at the summit to push ahead with the ratification of the treaty while giving the Government until October to work out its response.
“I feel time is needed to reflect on how to move forward, but this issue will stay on the agenda and leaders will discuss it in October,” said one official. Most member states are anxious to get an idea by then on whether Ireland is prepared to hold another referendum in the spring to try to get the treaty ratified, or whether this is impossible and some other solution can be sought.
Everyone accepts that the Lisbon Treaty cannot enter into force as intended on January 1st, 2009, but there is growing momentum behind the need to find a viable solution before the European Parliament elections in June 2009.
What the possible solutions are to solve the crisis will be the unspoken elephant in the room when EU leaders meet for dinner tonight. For fear of upsetting the Irish and the Czech Republic, which has doubts about proceeding with ratification, the current EU presidency Slovenia and the European Commission wants the meeting to become a listening session.
Taoiseach Brian Cowen is expected to outline his first thoughts on what happened during the referendum campaign without specifying a solution. Other EU leaders are expected to show the “spirit of solidarity” towards a colleague in difficulty. But with 27 leaders around the table, including volatile personalities such as Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi and French president Nicolas Sarkozy, the unexpected is always possible.
But while solutions to the “Irish situation” are unlikely to be aired at the European Council today, back in Paris there is no question of a full renegotiation of the Lisbon Treaty being tolerated. “One thing is certain – we won’t start drafting a new treaty,” French minister for European affairs Jean-Pierre Jouyet told the Senate. “Europe didn’t come to a halt on 13th June.” In truth, no one expects much progress on the Lisbon Treaty debate at the summit in relation to Ireland.
But there is a definite move by pro-treaty states such as France and Germany to try to stiffen the resolve of the Czech government in ratifying the treaty. Mr Sarkozy has already suggested that EU enlargement – a key strategic goal of the Czechs – could be blocked if Lisbon is not ratified.
It is possible he could also offer inducements to Prague to try to swing its eurosceptic government behind the treaty.
But Prague is in a tricky political position because the Czech president Vaclav Klaus, whose signature is required to ratify the treaty, has declared the treaty dead. Yet the coalition government contains some pro-EU parties such as the Greens and it takes over as EU president in January 2009.
The Czech constitutional court is currently considering the legality of the treaty and is expected to give a ruling in the autumn. If the government proceeds with ratification it will leave Ireland dangerously isolated.
With no resolution to the “Irish situation” possible, EU leaders will address the issue of rising oil and food prices at the summit. France has suggested reducing excise duties on fuel if oil prices continue to climb, but this idea is unlikely to be accepted by many states, who fear it could reduce exchequer returns and do little to solve Europe’s reliance on fossil fuels in the long term. Instead, the European Commission may loosen state aid rules to allow governments to provide emergency aid to vulnerable people and consider so called “Robin hood” taxes, which would tax oil company’s profits.
Another highly controversial proposal to address the steep rise in food prices is to consider boosting research and development in areas such as genetically modified organisms (GMO).
European Commission president José Manuel Barroso has written to all EU leaders asking them to appoint a GMO adviser to see if there can be a change in attitude to the technology. Foreign ministers will also meet at the summit with Kosovo and the possibility of removing diplomatic sanctions on Cuba on the agenda.