Leaks have failed to take shine off McAleese

For the past two weeks the presidential election campaign has been dominated by the question of Mary McAleese's nationalism, …

For the past two weeks the presidential election campaign has been dominated by the question of Mary McAleese's nationalism, her attitude to Sinn Fein, her role in the Northern Ireland peace process and whether she would alienate unionists. And it all hinged on the leaking of official documents from the Department of Foreign Affairs.

The electorate has been unimpressed. And the relative standings of Ms McAleese and her main challenger, Ms Mary Banotti, have remained largely static.

Some middle-class voters have drifted to the Fine Gael candidate over the past 11 days. But the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats standard-bearer has put in a powerful, defensive performance and she continues to lead her rival in Dublin, Leinster, Munster and Connacht/Ulster.

Fianna Fail fought on the grounds that its candidate was being subjected to a "dirty tricks" campaign which was both damaging to the national interest and unfair. And Ms McAleese displayed a honed steel profile under pressure.

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The extent of her achievement can be measured in the figures that gave her an increase of five points in first preference votes, at a time when most commentators and politicians believed she would suffer a setback.

Ms Banotti also gained five points, and because she was working from a lower base it was a relatively stronger performance.

The shifts in support for the front-runners were generated by a fall, from 13 to to 8 per cent, in the core vote of Ms Adi Roche and by a reduction in the level of "undecideds" from 17 to 13 per cent.

Two-thirds of those questioned said the controversies had made no difference to their voting intentions, and the percentage climbed to 75 per cent among Labour Party and Progressive Democrats supporters.

Voters divided almost equally, at 14 and 15 per cent, in saying they had been encouraged to vote for or against Ms McAleese because of the allegations.

Having withstood horrendous political pressure and survived the media-management shambles that was Galway last weekend, Ms McAleese is now well-placed to build on her strengths.

Fine Gael will wonder what it has to do to damage the Teflon image of the Northern professor.

An overt political filleting campaign, built about Gerry Adams's comments about her and benefiting from Department of Foreign Affairs "leaks", failed to do the business. And there is less than a week to go.

When he takes a look at his personal satisfaction rating, John Bruton may decide that a continuation of a high-profile, down-anddirty, political campaign does not suit. Particularly as Mary Banotti has been putting clear blue water between herself and the Fine Gael leader for the past week.

There was some evidence before this election that the public wanted a President independent of party politics. Up to two weeks ago, the candidates drew only 50 per cent support from their nominating groups.

The injection of politics into the equation by Fine Gael has been of some assistance to both candidates in terms of party political support.

But it has boomeranged on Mr Bruton. Within a month, his personal satisfaction rating dropped like a stone from 60 to 43 per cent. While elements of his Dail performance, leading up to the resignation of Mr Ray Burke, may have influenced that situation, Mr Bruton's intervention in the presidential election campaign was probably the main factor.

The other party leaders saw their satisfaction ratings fall by six points, with Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney holding the top two positions with scores of 67 per cent and 56 per cent. But Mr Bruton, who was portrayed as "partitionist" and "pro-unionist" by Fianna Fail in the in-fighting over Ms McAleese, suffered most and trailed in after Dick Spring and Proinsias De Rossa.

The Labour Party, in particular, will be traumatised by these results. While Adi Roche was endorsed by Democratic Left and the Green Party, she was Labour's choice. In particular, she was Dick Spring's surprise package, designed to replace Mrs Mary Robinson in the Park. She was also expected to wrest the Presidency from Albert Reynolds. But it hasn't worked out like that.

Ms Roche never recovered from the controversies that washed over her in the first 10 days of the campaign. Once her vote began to slip and she appeared vulnerable, the tide flowed in the direction of Ms Banotti. The traditional political pattern was reasserting itself.

Mr Spring's call to the Labour Party to rally behind Ms Roche fell on deaf ears. An internal support level of 42 per cent at the end of September fell to 33 per cent and now to 28 per cent. At this stage, the figures point to the possibility of Ms Roche being eliminated before Dana, in the aftermath of the distribution of Derek Nally's vote.

To come a poor third in the race would be damaging, but bearable, for the Labour Party. But to come fourth, behind an Independent candidate with few resources, would be a political disaster. Mr Spring and his party have less than a week in which to repair the situation.