BRITAIN: The Liberal Democrats delivered a stunning blow to both British prime minister Tony Blair and chancellor Gordon Brown yesterday with their surprise victory in the Dunfermline and West Fife byelection.
The scale of the Lib Dem achievement - overturning a Labour majority of 11,500 on a 16.24 per cent swing against the government - instantly revived questions about the duration of Mr Blair's tenure in 10 Downing Street, while prompting the first doubts about the certainty of Mr Brown's eventual succession to the Labour leadership.
Yesterday's shock outcome also put a check on expectations of the new-look Conservative Party under David Cameron's leadership. Despite Mr Cameron's presence on the campaign trail, the Conservative candidate trailed a poor fourth behind the Scottish National Party, with a lower share of the vote than in last year's general election.
Prof John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde said the only possible conclusion was that the impact of Mr Cameron's "charisma" had been "negative" compared to a strong Lib Dem campaign on local issues.
Speaking on BBC's World at One programme, Prof Curtice also warned Labour that the message from Thursday's vote was that it would be similarly vulnerable in byelections arising in other seats in which the Liberal Democrats are second-placed.
The Lib Dems could hardly believe their luck in delivering another byelection spectacular after two torrid months which have seen Charles Kennedy ousted as leader because of his alcohol problem and the subsequent leadership contest over-shadowed by revelations about the personal lives of MPs Simon Hughes and Mark Oaten.
The acting party leader Sir Menzies Campbell said the result was "an enormous shot in the arm for the party" ahead of the leadership ballot. A very good candidate and campaign, coupled with the enthusiasm of Lib Dem activists from across the country, had combined with "a sense of disillusionment in Labour's heartland".
The fact that this heartland constituency was also home to Gordon Brown, and adjacent to the chancellor's own constituency, prompted Sir Menzies to suggest that Willie Rennie's famous victory might even impact on the eventual Labour succession.
While admitting that he could see no credible alternative to Mr Brown, Sir Menzies asked: "If Gordon Brown is going to be prime minister and he can't hold a seat in his own backyard, how is he going to go down in the leafy glades of Essex?"
Labour delegates faced similar questions from the media as they arrived in Blackpool yesterday for their spring conference, and a speech from Mr Blair challenging Mr Cameron's Conservatives ahead of key votes in the Commons next week on anti-terror laws and ID cards.
While making light of any damage to Mr Brown resulting from Thursday's byelection, a number of delegates told the BBC they believed the message from voters was of growing impatience for Mr Blair to prepare for "an orderly transition" to a Brown leadership.
John Prescott, the deputy prime minister, attempted to calm anxious Labour MPs, newly worried about their own majorities. He admitted the result was disappointing, and a warning against complacency, while insisting the government would proceed to implement its policy programme for a third term.
However, the loss of this seemingly secure Scottish seat to a Liberal Democrat party registering its lowest opinion poll ratings since 2001 will have increased Labour anxieties ahead of difficult upcoming local elections in May, at a time when Mr Blair is battling to defuse a threatened internal revolt over his controversial plans for the reform of secondary schools.
Mr Rennie won 12,391 votes ahead of Labour's Catherine Stihler on 10,591. The SNP's Douglas Chapman was third on 7,261 while Conservative Carrie Ruxton secured 2,702 votes. The turnout was 34,578, or 48.69 per cent, down 11.21 per cent on the general election.