"The question facing us," said one experienced Labour deputy, "is whether Dick Spring can bring us back to past glories. His capacity to make us believe he can will not be helped by a poor presidential election result.
"But if he wants to hold on, he probably can, because nobody is going to challenge him openly at this stage. The party doesn't know what to do, and if they do dump Spring they don't know who to turn to instead."
The election result may not be a crucial watershed, he said, although a fourth place for Adi Roche behind Dana Rosemary Scallon or a fall below 10 per cent could have a severe psychological impact and prompt considerable recriminations.
This could also have a negative impact on public regard for Mr Spring. "If the public feel that he led her into this, that Dick Spring led this saintly woman into a terrible mugging in an effort to make himself look good, then his public profile will take another battering."
Labour deputies and senators contacted yesterday have different views on how much Mr Spring is to blame for the party's low morale and poor showing in the polls. But most agree that unless Mr Spring wants to go, there is no immediate threat to him.
One disagreed, suggesting that parliamentary party members could openly express dissatisfaction when they meet tomorrow week. "We could see some canvassing between now and then," according to this source. The obvious contenders are Ruairi Quinn and Brendan Howlin, but there is no indication that either is willing to mount a challenge at this stage.
Dick Spring has led his party for 15 years through five general elections, including that of 1992, which gave the party its best ever result. He has been Tanaiste twice, for more than four years each time, minister for foreign affairs, energy and environment and minister of State for justice.
At 47, he may still have a considerable career in public life in front of him, yet his domestic political options appear limited to the hope of becoming Tanaiste yet again after what may be a fouryear wait.
Speculation grew during Mr Spring's time as minister for foreign affairs during Ireland's EU presidency that he might like an international post. But the international options are also limited.
If he wants to stay on as leader into the next election, he must bring Labour out of its worst period of demoralisation since 1987. Then as now, Labour had been hammered in a general election. Now it faces the additional likely trauma of a dismal vote for its presidential nominee on Thursday. A weekend opinion poll shows Labour support back down to 10 per cent.
Yesterday Mr Spring suggested there was no connection between Ms Roche's performance and his continued leadership of the party.
"A small minority might use the presidential result as a mechanism to raise questions about his leadership," said one TD, "but at the end of the day Dick Spring would have a majority of the parliamentary party. It depends on whether he would consider going himself."
This deputy also rejects suggestions that a poor Roche performance would have implications for Mr Spring. "Dick Spring put more into this campaign than anyone else. Large parts of the organisation just didn't perform, and they can't blame him for that."
Mr Spring, deputies and senators agree, is very unlikely to be pushed in the short term. "It depends on Ruairi Quinn and what he is going to do," said another deputy. "There is no point in a backbencher doing anything. A contender must put his head forward. Howlin is very attached to Spring, so nothing will happen unless Quinn goes for it."
Many Dublin deputies and senators feel that the party is not aware enough of the severity of drug, crime and unemployment problems in the capital. A small number of deputies, including Tommy Broughan, Pat Upton and Rois in Shortall, have criticised Mr Spring and his advisers at parliamentary party meetings over the last year. Others privately criticise Mr Spring's style of leadership, although they stop short of saying he should go.
"Dick and Fergus [Finlay] and a few others do make a lot of decisions and simply inform us of them," said one parliamentary party member.
"We complained when he produced Adi Roche without any consultation, but we'd have complained as much if he hadn't produced anyone. It cuts both ways."
Another parliamentary party member is more critical of what he calls "an almost regal style" of decision-making. "When they sprang Adi Roche on us it was like watching the Oscars, except we didn't even know who the nominees were. Dick just opened the envelope and pulled out the name, and we were all supposed to cheer."
This person said this style is both perceived and disliked by the public. "He is perceived as arrogant, and when people say you are arrogant they don't necessarily mean the dictionary definition. They simply mean they don't like you. He must get out and meet people and sort that out."