European constituency profile - North West: How effective candidates are in appealing to their local base will be critical to success in the North West constituency and may be a key factor in the battle for transfers, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent.
In 1999, Dana Rosemary Scallon left a Fianna Fáil stalwart, Mark Killilea, a man rarely if ever found short of words, speechless when she emerged from the pack to take the third seat in Connacht/Ulster.
Just five days before the election, Scallon stood at just 9 per cent in The Irish Times/mrbi opinion poll, only to come home with 51,086 first-preference votes on the day.
The same will happen again this time, she insists, though fewer and fewer believe that the Galway-based politician can produce all kinds of everything in the final straight.
Though Dana's campaign was slow to get off the ground, she has managed to increase the pace over the last week in some areas. However, much of the conservative vote available to her in 1999 has disappeared, following her opposition to the March 2002 abortion referendum. In Dana's eyes, the referendum did not go far enough. In the eyes of the more mainstream anti-abortion movement, it was the best that could be got. They blame her for its failure, and they have not forgotten. At the same time, the former Eurovision winner's attractions to a wider, less ideological, audience have narrowed.
Having been badly burnt in 1999, pundits are wary of repeating the same mistake, though all agree that Fianna Fáil will take one seat, while Fine Gael should take one. The story of Fianna Fáil's internal candidate battle, which resulted in the selection of outgoing MEP, Mr Sean Ó Neachtain, is now well known.
Co-opted into the Parliament after Mr Pat "The Cope" Gallagher stood down to take up a Minister of State post, the Connemara man now has a solid election chance. However, Mr Ó Neachtain has begun to enjoy being a victim a little too much in the eyes of some, annoying significant sections of the Fianna Fáil organisation in the process.
His Donegal running mate, Minister of State Jim McDaid, was a reluctant campaigner, who had to be pressured into contesting the election at all. However, the longer the campaign has gone on, the more enthusiastic Mr McDaid has become and he has now overtaken Mr Ó Neachtain in the polls.
He has been helped by Mr Gallagher's extraordinary work ethic: "He has worked from dawn to dusk for McDaid, no doubt about that," said one FF staffer.
The opinion poll breakdown is particularly interesting in the case of the FF duo, since there is a significant disparity in the transfer patterns revealed. The poll reported that 37 per cent of McDaid's second preferences are going to Ó Neachtain, while 55 per cent of Ó Neachtain's are going to McDaid.
However, polls start to creak when one starts to delve into the distribution of transfers, so final judgments must be suspended. The sniping between McDaid and Ó Neachtain has helped to energise each other's organisations, though the row over Roscommon has worn thin.
Sinn Féin's Pearse Doherty has been the revelation of the campaign, proving himself to be well-briefed, if a little dour. Opinion polls estimate that he could be in line for 15 per cent of the vote, though this would not be anywhere near enough to get elected, unless he can start to win transfers. However, his transfers could decide whether McDaid will triumph over Ó Neachtain, if his second preferences go heavily in favour of the Donegal man.
So far, the two have been quick to draw blood from each other during radio debates. "I was surprised that McDaid was so cutting, given that he needs Doherty's votes," said one election observer. While McDaid can hope for Doherty transfers, Ó Neachtain can hope for a high percentage of Scallon's if they become available in time.
"He would be seen as being more old-fashioned," said a Fianna Fáil TD, who felt Ó Neachtain would do even better than Harkin from Dana's transfers, though this is not reflected in the polls.
Equally, the destination of transfers will equally help to decide the fate of Fine Gael's Senator Jim Higgins, who should pose a major challenge for a seat. However, he will need more support from his Clare running mate, Ms Madeleine Taylor-Quinn, who is currently standing at 8 per cent in the polls.
European Parliament transfers tend to be decided by geography, rather than party allegiance: "People don't tend to vote down the party ticket in the Euros," said one Fianna Fáil figure.
Sligo/Leitrim TD Ms Marian Harkin is best placed to take up the Independent standard if Scallon flops, particularly if she picks up transfers.
However, the decision of the Progressive Democrat leader, Ms Harney, to offer support to Harkin is a mixed blessing west of the Shannon.
"The other candidates are only too happy to tell voters that she has Harney's endorsement. Even worse, that she has Michael McDowell's endorsement," said one Fianna Fáil TD.
The addition of Co Clare to the constituency, which has moved from the old Munster constituency, has complicated the prediction arithmetic. In 1999, Brian Crowley and Jerry Collins of Fianna Fáil took 13,500 votes and 7,500 votes respectively, though some of Crowley's vote is a purely personal one that will stay inside the party.
Ms Scallon has exploited the future of Shannon Airport cleverly, especially during a Clare FM debate 10 days ago, when she scored heavily over the other candidates. Local issues, such as Shannon, appear throughout the constituency, although not all can be regarded as negative for the Government.
In particular, the benefits decentralisation could bring to the region are keenly understood by the local press and business community.
"The question is whether the people feel like saying offering any thanks to the Government. In European Parliament elections, God knows, you can never tell," said one observer.
Prediction: Fianna Fáil,1; Fine Gael, 1; Independent, 1.