WITH a new marching season approaching, the red lights are flashing danger as attempts to establish dialogue and mediation between residents groups and the Orange Order across the North have broken down or stalled.
The first test in what could be yet another season of confrontation and disorder could take place at Easter, which falls towards the end of March this year, when an Orange parade is due to take place on the Ormeau Road in Belfast.
Yesterday it emerged that members of the Orange Lodge of Dunloy, the predominantly Catholic Antrim village which was the centre of much confrontation last year, have broken off discussions after a meeting with the Mediation Network.
A lodge spokesman, Mr John Finlay, said there would be no further discussion. He said: "The residents group in Dunloy could not deliver, and that is the fundamental flaw - that they don't seem to want to deliver or cannot deliver or, when we do get some agreement through a third party, then they move the goalposts.
A local SDLP representative, Mr Sean Farren, said it was a matter of regret that the Orange Order had withdrawn.
The local lodge will meet the RUC Chief Constable, Mr Ronnie Flanagan, tomorrow to discuss the issue. Only robust and decisive action by Mr Flanagan prevented a pitched battle in Dunloy last August when buses carrying about 1,000 Apprentice Boys home from their annual parade in Derry diverted to Dunloy with the intention of marching through the village.
When the Apprentice Boys refused to desist and tried to bypass police lines and get at the village through fields, the RUC used batons to force them back onto the buses.
Most local Orange lodges in flashpoint areas are continuing to refuse to talk to residents groups about compromise arrangements for this year's marches.
This policy was supported yesterday by the assistant Grand Master of the order and leading UUP politician, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, when he asserted that Sinn Fein was orchestrating a widespread protest campaign against marches this year.
He said: "We have received reports from a number of areas, in at least three counties, that meetings have been held in these localities attended by Sinn Fein representatives, and the objective has been to set up so called concerned residents' groups and oppose Orange parades in these areas.
He did not know how coordinated this was but if it spread to other areas, it would have "serious implications".
Mr Gerard Rice, of the Lower Ormeau Concerned Community, said they had been contacted by people from several Catholic areas which had experienced trouble last year. Some areas had held meetings, which he and other spokesmen from established groups had attended but these meetings were open to all political parties.
His organisation in giving advice always advocated peaceful protest, he said - "burning and rioting are not the way forward".
Mr Rice said: "We offer advice. We do not tell people to set up residents groups. We have said to the Orange Order that before the issue becomes an open sore, they should talk to those local people they know what the grievances are and where problems may arise."
Amid reports that the British government may postpone any action to implement the forthcoming North Review report on parades, the Alliance Party leader, Lord Alderdice, yesterday strongly cautioned the government against any "lukewarm response".
He said in a statement: "It is certainly the Alliance view, and has been for some years before it became popular, that an independent tribunal with binding powers was necessary to deal with the contentious matter of parades and marches."
Both the Lower Ormeau Road and the Garvaghy Road residents groups assert that in spite of numerous letters, the local Orange organisations have not responded to invitations to become involved in discussions. Other flashpoint areas last year where trouble could arise again are Maghera, Co Derry, Crumlin, outside Belfast, and Armagh City. The Apprentice Boys' intention to march on the Derry walls again next August will also cause controversy.
A former SDLP councillor, Mr Brian Feeney, suggested in an article in the Irish News yesterday that for any march deemed controversial, the deposit of a bond should be required, involving public liability insurance of £10 million sterling.
Unlimited fines should be imposed jointly and severally on the Orange membership in any district which defied an order not to march, he said.
Suggestions were also set out by former Senator John Robb and Mr Jack McDowell. They included the point that no march or parade by any organisation should be permitted through territory "in which there is clearly significant opposition to it without due process of consultation, dialogue and agreement on an acceptable accommodation".
They added: "Verification of such opposition should be required at an adequately advertised and open meeting of residents and such verification should be conveyed by a duly constituted committee."
They further said that no one should be denied access to a church service. In addition: "Any parade, known to have more than 50 per cent of participants belonging to the congregation of a particular church, should have right of attendance to the church guaranteed unless there is strong evidence to suggest the likelihood of provocative action on behalf of the marchers, or that the march in question is merely an exercise in coat trailing through territory in which it is not welcome.