Local area profile: WexfordWhen it comes to shaking up the status quo and, for good measure, delivering a cliffhanger result, you can probably count on the voters of Wexford.
They sprang one of the biggest surprises of the 2002 general election by sending first-time candidate Dr Liam Twomey to the Dáil. His election on the seventh count left two prominent Fianna Fáilers, Mr Tony Dempsey and then minister of state Mr Hugh Byrne, scrapping for the final seat. Mr Dempsey made it with 73 votes to spare.
A peculiarly low-key local election campaign could well deliver a similarly exciting outcome. Wexford County Council is dominated by the two big parties - Fianna Fáil holds nine of the 21 seats and Fine Gael eight, leaving just one Labour councillor and three independents.
The new council will almost certainly have a different look, with Sinn Féin in contention for seats in all four electoral areas. It is highly unlikely to succeed in them all, but it will be a major surprise if the party's candidate in the European elections, Mr John Dwyer, does not take a county council seat in New Ross. Sinn Féin also has a strong candidate in the Gorey electoral area, publican Mr Jimmy Fleming, but he will do well to take a seat.
Fianna Fáil is under pressure here to hold its two seats. It is fielding just two candidates, Kilmuckridge-based farmer Mr Pat Rath, and former minister of state Mr Lorcan Allen.
In marked contrast Fine Gael, which is also aiming to keep its two seats, is running five candidates. Mr Michael D'Arcy junior, who was co-opted on to the council in place of his father, looks the safest bet of the five.
The biggest threat to the status quo here is independent Mr Declan McPartlin. Chairman of the Irish Rural Dwellers Association in Wexford, he is likely to take one of the four Gorey seats on offer, possibly at the expense of Fianna Fáil.
As the main party in government it is considered most likely to take a hit arising from one of the few election issues to have caught the imagination. A dramatic rise in the population of north Wexford, which is now part of the Dublin commuter belt, has placed increasing pressure on local infrastructure and schools. Gorey Community School, for example, was built to accommodate 900 students, but currently has 1,700 on its books.
In other parts of the county health, traffic and schools are also major issues. Local councillors have little power to influence policy in these areas, but members of the main government party know they are most likely to suffer the consequences.
Nevertheless, Fianna Fáil is confident of at least maintaining its representation in the other three electoral areas, Wexford, New Ross and Enniscorthy. Most parties are eyeing the chance of a gain in the seven-seat Wexford area, which currently has two Independents, two each from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and one Labour member, Mr Ted Howlin. He was co-opted on to the council when his brother, Brendan, was forced to resign because of the dual mandate rule.
Wexford town is something of a Labour stronghold; it holds three of the 12 town council seats and hopes to extend that to four. The party faces an uphill battle, however, to get a second county council seat.
If there is to be a shake-up in Wexford, it could be provided by Sinn Féin's Mr Maurice Roche. Next to Mr Dwyer, he is the party's best bet to take a seat, but at whose expense is anyone's guess. Of the two Independents, Mr Leo Carthy could be the more vulnerable, but he and Mr Padge Reck would expect to hold their seats. And while there may be changes in personnel in the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael ranks, both parties would be extremely disappointed if they failed to hold their two seats.
The council's other sitting Independent, Mr Seán Doyle, is likely to hold one of the five seats up for grabs in Enniscorthy. The big two parties both have two here, and look good to hold them. However, Seán Quirke will be hoping to make a breakthrough for the Progressive Democrats.
New Ross looks altogether more difficult to predict. Mr Dwyer, as mentioned, stands an excellent chance of taking a seat for Sinn Féin. Fianna Fáil, which currently has three of the five seats, has traditionally done well in this area.
The late addition to its ticket of Mr Seán Connick has added spice to the contest.Young and articulate, he is having a good campaign and could take a seat from a party colleague.
Fine Gael hopes to hold its two seats in this area, but faces a battle for the last seat with Fianna Fáil.
