Feeling among Government backbenchers: No rebellion, but more than a few TDs are gutted, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent
Politics is a zero-sum game. For one TD to gain, another must lose. Nevertheless, the sum of unhappiness within Fianna Fáil is no larger than usual. It is just that different people are unhappy.
Backbench FF TDs yesterday quietly gathered in small groups to mull over the Taoiseach, Mr Bertie Ahern's ministerial reshuffle.
Listening to third-hand gossip around the corridors of Leinster House yesterday, one could have been forgiven for thinking that a rebellion was quietly smouldering.
In reality, it is not a rebellion, or even the threat of one, but more than a few TDs, particularly those elected in 1997, are simply gutted.
However, there is one major caveat: the loyalty of backbenchers is now dependent upon a significant improvement in FF's fortunes in coming months.
Leinster House's Merrion Square car park told its own story yesterday afternoon, as FF TDs began to drift away early for their constituencies. "Guys are going to be busy looking after their seats. But if they see that improvements are not coming by next year, then it will be every man for himself," warned one TD.
Though few TDs expected Mr Ahern to make any more Cabinet changes than he did, they did feel that he had promised to free up Minister of State spaces.
However, FF TDs have been here before, and they knew it yesterday: "He always does this. He creates expectation and then disappoints," grumbled one backbencher.
The lack of an observable geographical logic to his choices irritated, even though many of the same complainants would be equally bitter if geography alone dictated events.
Said one TD: "Look, there are two jobs in Clare. That won't do anything for seat numbers, no matter how much people might like Tony Killeen." The performance of the Department of Health under the Tánaiste, Progressive Democrats leader Ms Harney, will play a key role.
For now, FF TDs admire her guts, nervously wonder what she will do, and quietly emphasise that they will not tie their fortunes to her if she goes too far.
"Believe me, we will not be defending Harney if this goes wrong. But one could not but be impressed by the passion in her speech on Wednesday night," said one Dublin TD.
The key will be her handling of the Hanly Report: "There would be a residual loyalty to an FF minister implementing it, but she won't have that," said another.
However, most of them believe that a wily operator such as the Tánaiste will work hard to avoid standing on observable landmines.
Still pondering the make-up of the Cabinet and the Ministers of State, most TDs believed that Mr Ahern's grand design suffered last-minute complications.
"He could not have planned it to come out this way. Sure, it avoids making too many new enemies, but there is no coherence to the juniors," said another TD.
Most colleagues feel sympathy for sacked Minister of State, Mr Jim McDaid, even if only for the fact that he was singled out for removal.
For months, colleagues believed that Mr Ahern had guaranteed Mr McDaid that he would survive as a junior if he ran in the European Parliament election and lost.
However, this appears not to have been the case, according to one source with close knowledge of another FF TD's Euro campaign: "There was no such deal sought, or offered."
Though they lacked hard information, most FF TDs believe that Mr Ahern had originally intended to fire Mr Séamus Brennan and to bring in somebody else.
"Whatever happened to Séamus Brennan had a domino effect, I'm sure of that," said one FF TD, who warned about the party's future in the next elections.
The lack of senior Cabinet representation on Dublin's northside, bar the Taoiseach himself, is now seen by some as a serious problem for Fianna Fáil.
In Dublin North East and Dublin North West, FF currently holds two out of three seats, while it also has two in North Central, which is being cut to a three-seater next time.
In each, FF will face a battle.
In North Central, Minister of State Ivor Callely and Mr Seán Haughey, Fine Gael's Mr Richard Bruton and Independent Mr Finian McGrath will be in contention.
In North East, FF currently has Dr Michael Woods, who will be 70 next year, and Mr Martin Brady, though Sinn Féin's Mr Larry O'Toole must surely pose a serious threat next time.
In North West, Minister of State Noel Ahern and Mr Pat Carey are sitting tenants in a constituency where Sinn Féin's Mr Dessie Ellis should offer serious competition.
Clearly disappointed, one TD said: "People will wait for the Budget to see what it throws up. Otherwise they will start thinking about their own re-election.
"That's where it gets messy. If one guy goes out on a local hospital issue, then everybody else will have to do so. It creates a dynamic."