SOMALIA:Thousands of Somalis yesterday fled their homes during a lull in the worst fighting the capital Mogadishu has seen in 15 years, fearing that a new offensive by the country's weak interim government and its Ethiopian backers will lead to more bloodshed.
Four days of bombardment by Ethiopian tanks and artillery in residential areas gave way to relative calm yesterday. But the fighting - which left at least 381 people dead, according to one human rights group - exposed the risks to a UN-backed plan for establishing the first central government since Siad Barre was overthrown in 1991.
"I think we're pretty close to a worst-case scenario," said a UN regional analyst. "It looks to me like it's unravelling fast. We need a new plan." According to the UN, some 47,000 people have fled the capital in the last 10 days.
Western powers had hoped that the overthrow of a coalition of Islamists by Ethiopian forces who invaded late last year would provide an opportunity to establish a legitimate government in Somalia, which Washington fears could be a haven for al-Qaeda.
Ethiopian troops earlier this year helped install the interim government of Abdullahi Yusuf, which was formed at a conference of clan elders in Kenya in 2004, but has so far failed to secure widespread support in the capital.
The US and others had urged Mr Yusuf to reach out to more moderate opponents within the Islamist movement and clan leaders to form a broader-based government, but he and his Ethiopian backers appear to have chosen to use force to assert control over the capital.
The government said it launched the offensive to establish security before it hosted a conference of clan elders later this month to try to broaden its appeal. But analysts said attacks using Ethiopian helicopters and mortars in residential areas would only inflame opposition.
Sudan Ali Ahmed, chairman of the Elman Human Rights Organisation, said the majority of the dead and injured were civilians, and the death toll of 381 could be higher, as Ethiopian casualties had not been counted.
The figures were calculated from hospital statistics, local resident groups and burials.
The fighting has also exposed Ethiopia's claims to have defeated the Islamists, who swept to power in Mogadishu and much of Somalia last year. Unidentified attackers appeared to use a missile to shoot down an Ethiopian helicopter on Friday.
Experts say it is hard to assess the precise composition of the forces ranged against the Ethiopians, pointing out that many militiamen from the city's dominant Hawiye clan - who accuse Mr Yusuf of discriminating in favour of his Darod kin - have taken part in the fighting.
Ethiopia had pledged to withdraw troops after capturing Mogadishu at Christmas, but the government has sent hundreds of reinforcements to the capital. Plans to deploy African Union troops to help the interim government assert its authority when its Ethiopian backers eventually leave have also failed to materialise. So far only Uganda has deployed troops.
Kampala said its 1,200-strong force suffered its first casualty on Saturday when a mortar round killed a soldier.
Ugandan officers have held talks with clan leaders to assure them they are neutral, but their mandate to protect the interim government's buildings and the airport has seen them targeted. - (Financial Times service)