MR John Major is determined to prevent the Tory leadership from falling into the clutches of the "bastard" Eurosceptic right, preferably by postponing the decisive contest until his friend, Mr Chris Patten, is back from Hong, Kong with a Commons seat from which to launch a challenge.
The successful party chairman in 1992, who lost his Commons seat in Bath, is untainted by the failures of the past five years which he has spent trying to democratise Hong Kong before the handover to China on July 1st.
In his last visit to the territory Mr Major talked warmly of him. Mr Patten has another, less well known ally, in Lord Cranborne, leader of the Lords and Downing Street chief of staff in the 1997 campaign. "They are close friends," said one insider.
The "Patten scenario" is one of several reasons why Tory moderates still believe they can prevent the leadership falling into the hands of the right after their looming election defeat on Thursday ushers in the Blair premiership.
Another is the belief that Mr Michael Heseltine has done enough in the campaign to reemerge as a feasible unity candidate, attractive enough to MPs on both left and right to become the stopgap leader.
Mr Kenneth Clarke might also get his boss's support if it could get him into a second round contest in November. As for Mr Patten, who has trimmed to the right more than the Chancellor under the influence of Chinese capitalism, he would be hard pressed to get back to Westminster quickly after his departure from Hong Kong, even if he wants to.
With right wingers, including Mr John Redwood, Mr Michael Portillo and Mr Michael Howard, already stalking the leadership, the Tory centre left knows it must first persuade Mr Major to stay on until the autumn rather than step down quickly, as Mr Neil Kinnock did after his defeat in 1992.
The Redwood right knows its best chance lies in an early contest. Its backers are likely to fight for influence on the backbench 1922 Committee which could then exert pressure on Mr Major to allow a June or July election.
The size of the likely Tory defeat matters both psychologically and in practical terms. The polls suggest that up to eight cabinet ministers could fall on Thursday, including Mr Portillo in Southgate, though two other potential contenders, Mr Malcolm Rifkind and Mr Michael Forsyth, have defied past predictions in their marginal Scottish seats.
They may do again, in which case Mr Rifkind, the Foreign Secretary, will try to get the 30 nominations needed to run.