Assuming a Yes vote in the referendums on the Belfast Agreement, the British government will set up a Sentence Review Body to examine the cases of men and women serving sentences for "terrorist" offences in the North.
Legislation is expected to be enacted next month to give legal power to the proposal in the agreement to give two-thirds remission on sentences. The effect will be that the majority of paramilitary prisoners qualifying for early release under the scheme will be freed by the summer of next year. Smaller numbers will be released on a phased basis up until June 2000, when all remaining prisoners qualifying under the agreement will be allowed out.
Only prisoners associated with the main paramilitary groups, which are currently on ceasefire and, broadly, support the terms of the agreement, are eligible for early release. Prisoners belonging to the Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF) and the Irish National Liberation Army (INLA) are not eligible since they have not declared ceasefires.
In the Maze and Maghaberry, the two main prisons in the North housing prisoners who regard themselves as active members of paramilitary organisations, the new arrangements mean that 74 life-sentenced prisoners, most of whom are convicted of murder, will be free by summer 1999. Another eight "lifers" will be released between August 1999 and July 2000. About 35 lifers will be released in July 2000.
There are a further 285 prisoners serving "determinate" sentences of more than five years. Some 220 of these will be out by July of next year. Another 36 will be released during the following year, and the remainder will be freed in July 2000.
There are possible exceptions. While it is hoped that all the prisoners will be content to end their associations with armed violence, some may still pose a threat to society. The British government has indicated the review body will be assisted by "experts in assessing risk". It is not clear who these assessors will be, but it is likely they will include psychologists and intelligence experts.
The groups due to benefit are:
The Provisional IRA, which has around 235 prisoners in the North, mostly in the Maze but also in Maghaberry, where four IRA women prisoners are held.
The Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) and its associated group, Red Hand Commando, which have 104 prisoners in the Maze.
The Ulster Defence Association (UDA) which has 112 prisoners in the Maze.
The LVF - the group formed by Billy Wright - has 22 prisoners in the Maze.
The INLA has 27 prisoners affiliating to it in the Maze. Two members of this group shot dead
Billy Wright after climbing across the roof of H-Block Six which the INLA and the LVF shared at the time. They have since been separated, and the INLA now occupies two wings of H-Block 3 alongside IRA prisoners. It is understood a number of LVF prisoners, who left the UDA wings in the past year, have tried to ingratiate themselves with their old associates in an attempt to get early release.
There is also speculation among republican sources that the INLA may be considering a ceasefire so that its prisoners might also gain from the release scheme.
It is likely that by the end of the two years, the Maze, which opened in 1971 as the Long Kesh internment camp, will close and the remaining anti-agreement elements probably transferred to the newer high-security prison at Maghaberry.
It will also bring to an end an era of penal history during which as many as 15,000 men and hundreds of women served sentences related to the communal violence. Among those were 400 who have already completed life tariffs and who have returned to their communities.