Mallon looks certain, but other parties look to future

With extensive rural areas and the two large towns that give it its name, Newry and Armagh is in many ways a microcosm of the…

With extensive rural areas and the two large towns that give it its name, Newry and Armagh is in many ways a microcosm of the North.

The constituency also has a complex sectarian makeup; towns such as Camlough and Jonesborough in the south are almost exclusively republican while on its northern fringe, Tandragee and Markethill are among the most "true blue" unionist towns going.

It would be a major upset indeed for Mr Seamus Mallon to lose the seat he has held for all but one term since 1983. He is the Deputy First Minister after all and one of the most popular politicians in the North, but the Sinn Fein vote has been increasing since 1992.

What the election loses in immediate suspense it could make up in long-term significance if the Sinn Fein candidate, Mr Connor Murphy, is left close to Mr Mallon, who has no heir apparent.

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Neither party claims to be concerned about the future, however, and as Mr Mallon says here and now "there is no surfeit of love" between the two. In the 1997 general election, Mr Mallon got 43 per cent to Sinn Fein's 21 per cent; in 1998 the SDLP's 35 per cent compared with Sinn Fein's 25 per cent.

Mr Mallon says he believes the Assembly result would be repeated whereas Mr Murphy points to a margin of 4,000 between the parties and says his party will get most of the area's 5,000 new votes. This, he says, makes the seat "very much up for grabs".

Outsiders might have thought that in south Armagh especially British demilitarisation would be a major issue. Ironically, while both nationalist candidates view it as one issue among many, it could be crucial in the struggle for the unionist vote.

While the two nationalist parties fight it out, an equally close race exists between the DUP and the UUP. Although the constituency was traditionally Ulster Unionist, the post-Belfast Agreement rifts have deepened.

The DUP candidate, Mr Paul Berry, polled 7,200 at the Assembly election against Ulster Unionist first preferences of 9,800. A newcomer last time, he has two years as a very active Assembly member under his belt and it is his rival, the comparatively unknown Armagh councillor, Mrs Sylvia McRoberts, who has it all to prove.

Mr Berry says the issue of demilitarisation is of key importance to unionist voters in the area. They feel unprotected even with the presence that exists currently and he believes they will "send a message" to both the UUP and British government not to make any more concessions to republicans.

In the local elections, voters will also be electing councillors to Armagh District Council in the north and Newry and Mourne in the south. A redistribution in favour of the DUP might be expected in Armagh where they have only two members to the UUP's 10. Here the SDLP has seven councillors to Sinn Fein's three.

In Newry and Mourne there is one DUP member to five UUP, and 12 SDLP to eight Sinn Fein.