The return of the Northern Ireland Assembly this week and the reconstituting of the Executive has heightened speculation that Peter Mandelson may soon be leaving us. The Northern Secretary took over from Mo Mowlam last October, but his appointment was always seen as a temporary little arrangement, a way back into the cabinet after the fall over his house loan.
Viewed as efficient and intelligent, he was never popular with nationalists who find him cold, lacking in a feel for the place but, while without great warmth, although frequently charming. He has been tolerable to unionists, for whom he appears to try hardest, while leaving nationalists to struggle for everything they seek.
The operation of the Executive means the Secretary of State has less power and less reason to spend time in the North. Consequently, he is expected to devote more energy to Westminster and plans for the next election. Tony Blair's government has another two years to run, much like our own, but is likely to go to the country next spring. Mandelson wants to be - and is wanted as - election supremo, despite Chancellor Gordon Brown's determination to keep him as far from London as possible.
Things in the North took a turn for the worse in February, but they are back on track again and if devolution continues to work and Mandelson can steer the Police Bill through Westminster by October without losing any nationalists en route, he can claim success and may be happily packing his bags. It is more likely, however, that to show commitment he may become actively involved in the election campaign, while staying on as Northern Secretary. If he succeeds and Blair and Co are returned to power (a decreased majority would do nicely), Mandelson will be looking for the reward of one of the great British institutions - the Foreign Office.