Manufacturing continues to drive global recovery

A range of economic data released overnight shows manufacturing activity in the United States and Europe showed solid expansion…

A range of economic data released overnight shows manufacturing activity in the United States and Europe showed solid expansion in May, indicating a global recovery in industry is deepening and reinforcing growth around the world.

But both the US and European indexes showed the global demand behind the expansion also pushed up costs of raw materials. In Europe, the figures have raised concerns about inflation and potentially higher interest rates in the months ahead.

The US-based Institute for Supply Management said its monthly manufacturing index rose more than expected in May to 55.7 - its highest level since hitting 56.7 in February 2000 - from 53.9 in the prior month. Any reading above 50 suggests growth, while one below 50 indicates contraction.

And the Reuters Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.5 in May, the highest since February 2001. The reading was the second straight month of increasing output.

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"We're seeing signs of a broadening of global growth momentum," said Mr Bruce Kasman, senior economist and head of global economic research at J.P. Morgan Chase.

Mr Kasman said the global rebound in manufacturing was one reason for the US dollar's recent weakness against other currencies as investors seek to gain on improved returns in other regions and countries of the world, from Asia to Canada.

Most analysts said that despite the rise in prices in both reports, the reports indicated a still nascent rebound from a year-long downturn that would likely keep the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank from lifting interest rates in coming months as they try to secure a solid recovery.

But some economists said the pickup in inflation could prompt the ECB to begin increasing rates as soon as July, even if the euro's recent strength would deflect some of the pressure from rising prices.

Many analysts focused on the rise in prices as a potential problem for the European Central Bank, with euro zone inflation already running at the central bank's 2 percent target.

The PMI input prices index, seen as a leading indicator of consumer prices six months to a year down the line, climbed to 56.0 in May, after jumping 6 points in April to 53.9, reflecting higher oil and commodity prices.

The data was followed by euro zone producer price figures for April, which showed a rise of 0.3 per cent from March and a fall of 0.7 per cent from the same month a year ago.

Analysts said both sets of data showed that past increases in energy prices were beginning to feed through, signaling a turnaround in Europe's downward inflation trend in months ahead. But the region's fragile economic recovery would likely deter the ECB from hiking rates.

"Fundamentally, relatively little has changed ... growth will certainly reach potential by the year end, but it will be very gradual," said Mr Volker Nitsch of Bankgesellschaft Berlin. "There is no concrete pressure on the ECB to hike rates this week."