Mayo has more reason than most to take pleasure in the upcoming election

CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:CAUGHT IN the spotlight after years in the shade, Mayo has more reason than most to relish the forthcoming election.

Home of a potential taoiseach and several new cabinet members. the constituency has also experienced a little seismic shift in the past few weeks.

Beverly Flynn’s decision not to stand for Fianna Fáil was eclipsed nationally by similar announcements by senior party colleagues Noel Dempsey and Dermot Ahern. By rights, then, Fine Gael’s strongest constituency should ensure a safe run home for its four candidates.

Enda Kenny topped the poll in 2007, followed by party colleague Michael Ring, and there’s no reason to believe the pair won’t repeat this double act. Kenny may also benefit from some “Flynn” votes among the middle-class in Castlebar, even though Fianna Fáil has added 24-year-old trainee barrister Lisa Chambers to the party ticket in the county capital.

John O’Mahony’s GAA profile and the fact his base is in the east of the sprawling county should ensure he is the safest of the four. O’Mahony has no direct competition, in contrast to party colleague Michelle Mulherin, a solicitor, county councillor and former mayor of Ballina. She will be running head to head with Fianna Fáil’s Dara Calleary, who coined the phrase “Ógra Fianna Fáil”, who nominated Micheál Martin as new party leader and who has been appointed to the party’s new frontbench in turn.

Calleary, a Ballina-based third-generation TD, took more than 7,000 first preferences on his first time out in 2007, but Mulherin polled almost 5,500. The tantalising prospect of her party forming the next government could give her the vital edge.

There are other forces at play. Fianna Fáil sources are said to be envious of the Sinn Féin ticket – two active councillors, Therese Ruane, sister of the North’s Minister for Education Caitríona Ruane and known for her work with the marginalised in Mayo Intercultural Action, and Rose Conway-Walsh, a Belmullet-based councillor who holds a masters in local government.

Still, some Fine Gael observers believe Sinn Féin would have been better to stick with its well-known Charlestown councillor Gerry Murray. Had he run, his competition would have included that posed by former independent TD Dr Jerry Cowley, who is now standing for Labour in a county that recorded a mere 1.16 per cent first preference votes for that party in 2007. When the GP and community activist lost his seat in 2007, some observers felt it was because of his support on health and safety grounds for the community in Erris affected by the Corrib gas project. But with 20 per cent of national voters undecided, a Mayo pattern of returning Independents in the last two elections and with a parallel tendency to return two TDs in Castlebar, some believe he would have been better to stay non-party.

The late entry of Independent councillor Michael Kilcoyne is also posing a formidable challenge for all parties, not just Labour. Kilcoyne, a Siptu sectoral organiser and former chair of the Consumers’ Association of Ireland, has held a clinic in Castlebar every Saturday for the last six years.