David Trimble and the Belfast Agreement took it straight in the solar plexus when William McCrea was declared the new MP for South Antrim early yesterday morning. They're badly winded, but there's no stepping out of the ring.
That was the major consolation for the entire pro-agreement bloc yesterday. A politician can only take so many hits before throwing in the towel. But Mr Trimble is keeping his nerve.
In the next few weeks Mr Trimble will need all the allies he can muster, and in addition to the Yes camp in his own party those allies include Tony Blair, Bertie Ahern, Seamus Mallon and Gerry Adams. "They will have to take the burden too," said Mr Trimble yesterday.
The DUP, when taking time off yesterday from celebrating Mr McCrea's victory, attacked Mr Trimble from without the UUP while others, such as Jeffrey Donaldson and Martin Smyth, maintained the onslaught from within.
Mr Trimble trotted out a number of excuses yesterday: the rain, the media, the voters. He was certainly correct about the voters: his candidate David Burnside didn't get enough votes. But it wasn't just a sententious point the First Minister was making. He had warned all along that if the apathy factor was not overcome Mr Burnside was in trouble. As it turned out, only 43 per cent of the electorate bothered to vote.
There is a multiplicity of reasons for the result. Both Mr McCrea and Mr Burnside fought a good fight, but it was the DUP man who made his mark. That was because he was the more personable of the two main candidates and he had the better party machine. Moreover, he had a simple message: No to the Belfast Agreement. Mr Burnside tried to play it to the Yes and No sides and it didn't work.
Another factor here is that many Ulster Unionists were lukewarm about their candidate. Early this morning some senior unionists appeared actually content that Mr Burnside lost.
The DUP claimed the result had overturned a 16,000 majority held by the late UUP MP Clifford Forsythe, but that's a bit Irish. Based on the Assembly election in South Antrim in 1998, anti-agreement unionists had the majority, and so it was again early yesterday morning when Mr McCrea won with a surfeit of 822 votes.
But the biggest factor of all was that unionists are growing increasingly disillusioned with the agreement, and it's for emotional rather than practical reasons. Many unionists, including those in the moderate camp, are alienated by what they see as an assault on their identity.
Nationalists argue that Patten is designed to create a neutral police service for the entire community that belongs to neither tradition, but it doesn't wash with unionists. This issue, because it is based on emotion, goes beyond logic.
Mr Trimble faces his Ulster Unionist annual conference on October 7th. He could be confronted by a leadership challenge by then or that could come later in the autumn when the Police Bill completes its way through Westminster.
His internal opponents must think strategically. They either strike now or after the Police Bill is enacted. What Mr Trimble's supporters are banking on is that his potential challengers funk this opportunity and wait to see what the completed Bill is like, in the expectation that its final shape will galvanise the entire party into outright rebellion.
Pro-agreement unionists, in the meantime, will battle for amendments to the Bill which the First Minister can plausibly argue are concessions that he has wrested from the British and Irish governments, the SDLP and Sinn Fein. They believe that is key to his survival.
In Mr Trimble's favour, one potential challenger to his leadership now appears to be out of the reckoning. Mr Burnside says he would like a second chance to contest South Antrim, but he's unlikely to get it.
Therefore, it's now up to Jeffrey Donaldson to decide if this is his time. His opening position of urging the party to withdraw from the Executive rather than directly challenging Mr Trimble appeared rather hesitant. The UUP 110-member executive is meeting in Belfast today and it will be interesting to see if Mr Donaldson beefs up his attack.
Mr Trimble argued trenchantly yesterday that he requires some concessions on Patten. Peter Mandelson would like to help him here, but Seamus Mallon and Gerry Adams are insisting Patten must not be touched. The Irish Government outwardly conveys the nationalist line, but would probably be willing to be elastic if Sinn Fein and the SDLP would do the same.
There is some room for manoeuvre. Nationalist demands on matters such as greater powers for the Police Ombudsman, Policing Board and Oversight Commissioner could probably be conceded by Mr Mandelson without further damaging unionist feelings.
If that happened, could the SDLP and Sinn Fein reciprocate by allowing some fudging, or at the very least long-fingering, on the more difficult emotive issues? That's what the next six weeks of politics, particularly behind the scenes, will be about. As usual, it will go to the last round.
Ulster Unionist councillors face an election next year or the year after. The party's nine MPs probably will have to confront the electorate next summer. The party faces severe pressure in Westminster constituencies such as North Belfast, Strangford and even in Mr Trimble's patch of Upper Bann.
The next Assembly elections are scheduled for three years' time. Mr Trimble's main hope is that by early next year the Belfast Agreement and its institutions bed down to such an extent that Ulster Unionist faith in the deal is gradually restored. But if the haemorrhage at the ballot box continues unabated, then the men in grey suits could come calling.