WHAT CAN BE DONE:THERE IS unlikely to be a diplomatic "silver bullet" to convince the 84-year-old President Robert Mugabe and his entourage to go, but there is a range of options open to the international community that could help to nudge them in that direction.
Mediation:The most likely short-term response from the African Union (AU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). South Africa's president, Thabo Mbeki, has been the SADC mediator but the Zimbabwean opposition do not trust him because of his cosy relationship with Mugabe, and other SADC leaders are losing patience with Mbeki's softly-softly approach.
The former United Nations secretary general, Kofi Annan, has proposed a Zimbabwean mediation mission and led a successful initiative in Kenya in similar circumstances earlier this year. But Mugabe is likely to resist Annan, who has been critical of the regime's conduct. There is also a question of whether there is a deal to be done. Morgan Tsvangirai has rejected the idea of a national unity government while Mugabe remains president, and the Zimbabwean leader is clearly in no mood to step down. He says "only God" can remove him. However, mediation will be necessary if there are to be new elections of any kind.
Financial sanctions:The EU and US are examining ways of broadening existing sanctions aimed at Mugabe and the Zanu-PF leadership. The president and other top officials are already subject to an EU travel ban and an assets freeze.
The sanctions being proposed by the British would use more creative ways of tracking down their money, using the "forensic accounting" methods the US has perfected in pursuit of Mafia and al-Qaeda funds. An effort will also be made to eject the children of the Zimbabwean elite from their places at western schools and universities.
The tactic is clearly aimed at raising the costs to the top echelons of sticking with Mugabe and thus deepening divisions among Zimbabwe's rulers.
There is little support for any measures that would have widespread impact on ordinary Zimbabweans, such as cutting off electricity supply from South Africa or cutting remittances from migrant workers.
Diplomatic isolation:Britain is pressing the AU and SADC not to recognise Mugabe as Zimbabwe's head of state, and to do business instead with Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) on the grounds it won the March election.
The Kenyan post-election crisis is again seen as a model.
The AU is holding a summit this week in Egypt. The question is whether Mugabe will be invited and given his usual seat. SADC could well split over this question. The Tanzanians and Zambians have been particularly outspoken in denouncing the conduct of the election, while Mbeki and the Namibians have so far sheltered Mugabe from pressure.
Britain, the US and France are also trying to push the UN Security Council into critical statements and perhaps sanctions targeted at the regime in Harare.
Peacekeepers:The possibility of sending in AU peacekeepers was raised by the Kenyan and Tanzanian governments before Tsvangirai's withdrawal. The opposition has also called for a peacekeeping operation, for all the reasons the Mugabe regime is likely to reject any such mission.
It would involve ceding sovereignty and would create conditions for a fairer election.
Military intervention:The situation in Zimbabwe and its destabilising impact on neighbouring countries would have to get much worse before the option is even considered.
There are precedents, such as Tanzania's intervention in Uganda in 1979.-