LEBANON:A government plan to commemorate murdered premier Rafik Hariri on St Valentine's Day could ignite the territory again, writes Michael Jansenin Beirut
Mediators in Lebanon are intensifying efforts to pull the country back from the brink of civil war. There is a very real fear that there could be violent clashes if the government camp goes ahead with its plan to stage a mass demonstration at Martyrs' Square on February 14th to commemorate the anniversary of the assassination of former premier Rafik Hariri.
This square, where Mr Hariri's tomb is located, is adjacent to the tented camp established on December 1st to protest at the government's refusal to give the opposition a third of cabinet seats and a role in decision-making. Last week's street fighting, during which seven people died, shocked and shook Lebanon and ratcheted up tension throughout the country.
On the domestic scene, Maronite Catholic patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir is attempting to reconcile two inveterate enemies, Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea, a stalwart in the government camp, and former general Michel Aoun, head of the Free Patriotic Movement, a partner of Hizbullah in the opposition. And, the army commander, General Michel Sueliman has warned the government and the opposition not to put pressure on the army to take sides.
The volunteer army, the country's sole surviving national institution, could split along communal lines. Sixty per cent of the soldiers are Shias, many of whom could join the ranks of Hizbullah if there were to be a civil war.
On the regional scene, Saudi Arabia continues in its search for a formula which is acceptable to both government and opposition. Riyadh, which enjoys considerable leverage with the government, is co-operating with Tehran, which supports the opposition, in this increasingly desperate drive.
Once an accord has been reached through back channels, Arab League secretary general Amr Moussa has been assigned the task of bringing the plan to Beirut for formal acceptance. This may not happen before the end of next week, giving little time for fine tuning and risking fresh violent incidents.
A former political adviser to the UN force in Lebanon who now is a university professor, Timor Goksel observed: "Both sides realise they can- not control the street and cannot afford to escalate." The situation could easily get out of hand if 16-year-olds are running loose in the streets, provoking each other and soldiers who are tired of dealing with tension.
Rami Khoury, head of the Issam Fares Public Policy think-tank at the American University of Beirut, said that both sides are pushing the situation to the brink because they have "made a big investment in brinkmanship. When they get to the brink they pull back" as they did last week. But there is the danger that they could miscalculate.
Mr Khoury, who was invited to the White House for discussions last week, also said that President Bush, opting for Plan B in the wake of his "failed adventure in Iraq", is determined to "fight Iran and Islamism on every front, covert and overt," following a strategy similar to that adopted during the cold war. He said Mr Bush wants to draw lines here, in Iraq, the Palestinian territories, and Somalia, and enforce these lines. This makes it difficult for contesting parties to compromise.
Washington's confrontational attitude seems to have prompted the Saudis, who have major interests in Lebanon and want to halt the inter-Palestinian conflict, to become "more assertive and take a more independent line" on the crises in Lebanon and the Palestinian terri- tories. This is why Saudi King Abdullah held meetings with Hizbullah and Iranian figures and invited the leaders of warring Fatah and Hamas to Mecca.
Mr Goksel said that a full formal agreement need not be achieved ahead of St Valentine's day. But there should be a "strong signal that a solution is in the offing."