Bertie Ahern is notorious for being slow to act on troublesome colleagues, writes Mark Brennock.
"He dithered on Ray Burke. He dithered on Denis Foley. He dithered on Padraig Flynn. He dithered on Liam Lawlor. He dithered on a national spatial plan, on Aer Lingus, on taxis, on Luas, on decentralisation.
"If postponement was an option that was the option that the Taoiseach
chose."
So said former Taoiseach John Bruton last year, shortly before the General Election that returned the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, to power.
Mr Bruton was expressing a common perception of the Taoiseach Mr Ahern: that when it came to decisions, he always tended to wait until tomorrow.
Contacts between the Taoiseach and the Minister for Defence, Mr Smith,
took a long time this week to resolve the extraordinary stand-off over the
Minister's position on the Hanly Report, the core of the Government's health reform programme.
The Government information machinery was on standby throughout yesterday to issue a statement from Mr Smith either clarifying his position, or accepting collective responsibility for the decision to back Hanly, or even apologising for going offside on the issue and embarrassing the Taoiseach and many of his colleagues who had supported the report despite severe constituency pressure. Sources said the two men had not yet agreed a form of words. Only late last night did a statement finally emerge.
It was carefully worded, but a Government spokeswoman said the Taoiseach was satisfied with it. Mr Smith expressed "regret" about "the appearance which my remarks may have created of being at variance with Government policy".
Well they created that appearance all right, an appearance which deeply angered Fianna fail backbenchers and Ministers who had loyally stood by the difficult recommendations of Hanly despite constituency difficulties.
On Monday Mr Smith robustly told constituents at a meeting in Nenagh that he was unhappy with the recommendations of the Hanly report insofar as they impacted on Nenagh General Hospital. On Wednesday morning, the Taoiseach told the Dáil to peals of laughter that Mr Smith "totally, totally" supported the Hanly Report. Mr Smith went on RTÉ a few hours later to make it clear that he did not.
Away on EU business since Wednesday night, the Taoiseach is understood to have delegated at least one trusted member of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party to report back to him on the mood among TDs and Senators. These emissaries will have found considerable anger at the fact that a Cabinet member has been able to play the constituency card.
If health service reform is to succeed, some small local hospitals will have to be downgraded, with high-class medical care concentrated in regional centres of excellence. Voters tend to support their local hospitals: to push the changes through, Government backbenchers have to be "on message", willing to stand up and argue to their constituents that these reforms are good for them.
The day after the Hanly report was published, Mr Smith’s constituency colleague Ms Maire Hoctor did this. So did Clare TD Tony Killeen, despite the fact that Ennis General Hospital is to lose some services. So did Dún Laoghaire TD Barry Andrews, despite the fact that some services in his local St Michael’s Hospital would be transferred to St Vincent’s under Hanly’s recommendations.
For a Cabinet member to break ranks on such a politically delicate operation is hugely undermining for the Government’s strategy and the Taoiseach’s authority.
Last night, Mr Smith expressed regret and his support for "the principles of the Hanly recommendations". But the transfer of some services from local hospitals such as Nenagh to regional centres is more than a principle. It is a difficult political reality that has to be faced if the hospital services are to be reformed.
Mr Smith last night also regretted "that my comments were taken as weakening the strategy or undermining other public representatives in their support for Government policy".
Indeed. Already Tony Killeen is to turn up today at a protest meeting against the Ennis changes. There are concerns that Ms Hoctor may also lose her enthusiasm for Hanly. Other deputies may follow.
The Minister for Health, Mr Martin, must see early signs of a political disaster. If the rationalisation of hospital services gets caught up in local resistance, with local government elections taking place in six months, he can wave goodbye to the prospect that he will finally succeed in implementing health service reform.
The stakes in this argument are very high, and it is indeed a defining moment in Mr Ahern’s leadership. Last night he secured Mr Smith’s expression of regret, profession of loyalty to Cabinet decisions and statement of admiration for the taoiseach.
But his statement reiterated his view that "local opinion and experiences must be taken fully into account" before Hanly is implemented. This could simply be a prescription for sensible local consultation. If taken to extremes, however, it could open the door for the renegotiation of every local aspect of the Hanly recomendations, thus undermining the entire project.
Mr Smith last night stressed his his track record in standing over tough Cabinet decisions. Over the coming months he and his colleagues have many such decisions to stand over if the health services are to be put on the road to reform.