The people have spoken in the two sets of elections in Northern Ireland and new imponderables for the future implementation of the Belfast Agreement are posed. The local elections have replicated the trends in the parliamentary elections across 101 district electoral areas in the 18 Westminster constituencies. There is a swing away from the moderate parties of unionism and nationalism, the Ulster Unionist Party and the SDLP, and a decided shift in public support for the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein. The political map of Northern Ireland is re-drawn into a re-partitioned green/orange State.
What mandate exists now for further movement on the most intractable problems of decommissioning, policing and de-militarisation which have tested the resilience of the Agreement for more than a year and stretched Mr David Trimble's leadership to breaking point? The election results indicate that the balance of political power, which has enabled the Agreement to bed-down and to be accepted by a majority in both communities, has changed dramatically.
With the completion of the local election results yesterday, the First Minister, Mr Trimble, has suffered a significant setback. The UUP's vote dropped by 5 percentage points. The party won 154 seats, compared to 185 seats in 1997 and 197 in 1993. It has tried to put a spin on the statistics by suggesting that 17 councillors had defected in re-alignments and resignations over the Agreement before the elections. But that will not take away from the fact that the loss of 31 local council seats puts Mr Trimble in a most precarious position within his party.
The DUP vote, on the other hand, has increased by 6 percentage points in the local elections. The party secured 131 seats, compared to 91 in 1997 and 103 in 1993. It has won an extra 40 seats. It wrested control from the UUP in a number of councils and has gained three extra seats on Belfast City Council
Having surpassed the SDLP for the first time in the Westminster elections, Sinn Fein secured a 4 percentage point increase in support yesterday. It won an extra 34 seats. The party's strength has risen to 108 seats, from 51 seats in 1993 and 74 seats in 1997. It is now the largest party on Belfast City Council and poised to take the Lord Mayoralty for the first time. The SDLP, nonetheless, fared extremely well in the local elections. It witnessed a one percentage point drop in support but held 117 of its 120 outgoing seats.
For all of the significant shifts in the elections, however, there is every reason to believe that a majority of voters still supports the Belfast Agreement and wants to see it implemented in full. Only Sinn Fein can make that happen now. Contrary to its claims, the party had no great difficulty from dissident republicans in the elections. It may be on its way to eclipsing the SDLP to become the force in Northern nationalism. It has tested Mr Trimble's bona fides and it knows where he stands.
Mr Trimble faces into an Ulster Unionist Council meeting next Saturday week where his fate will rest in the hands of delegates. He will resign as First Minister a week later if there is no progress on decommissioning. Alone of all the party leaders, Mr Gerry Adams has got a mandate to deliver the next phase of the Belfast Agreement. He must now persuade the IRA to independently and verifiably put arms beyond use so that there can be movement on decommissioning, policing and demilitarisation. There can be no excuses from Sinn Fein now.