ZIMBABWE: Fears of civil upheaval in Zimbabwe are looming ever larger amid reports of planned coups Robert Mugabe has robbed over a quarter of a million people of their votes in this weekend's presidential election, writes Declan Walsh
ZVoters won't have to go far to cast their ballots in St Peter's today. A week ago a gang of youths tore through the village, torching houses, stealing ID cards and beating anyone who dared oppose President Robert Mugabe with iron bars and axes. Afterwards about 20 homeless families have forced to take refuge in the local primary school - also the polling station for this weekend's elections.
But a strange story appeared in the government media the following day. "MDC spreads campaign of terror" read the headline in the Chronicle newspaper.
The attack was the work of opposition youths, explained the story below a photo of a distraught woman.
Two days later the same "victim", Regina, was still boiling with fury. "It's all lies," she spat out, still wearing the same dress as in the photo.
"Those youths were from [ruling party] Zanu-PF. We have complained to the police. But they do nothing." President Mugabe, Zimbabwe's 78-year-old autocrat, is pulling out all the stops to ensure victory in his country's most bitterly contested poll ever.
He has expelled European election observers. He has stuffed the electoral board with soldiers and other loyalists. He has robbed over a quarter of a million people of their votes with the stroke of a pen.
And, in hundreds of towns and villages like St Peter's, his supporters have used brutal violence including torture, castration and in some cases murder - to scare off anybody who might consider voting for opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai.
"At this stage there is no possibility of a free and fair election," said Lovemore Madhuka of the National Constitutional Assembly, a leading civic group. "The only issue is whether the will of the people can be expressed in the current circumstances." On paper, at least, Mr Tsvangirai is heading for victory. According to a recent opinion poll by the Mass Public Opinion Institute, he is twice as popular as 78-year-old Mr Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe since independence in 1980.
But another statistic was just as telling. Nearly 60 per cent of those questioned refused to divulge their preference to the pollsters. The most popular interpretation is that they were just too scared.
If opposition support is swelling - an impression confirmed during several interviews across the country this week - it would be impossible to know from the powerful state media. In recent weeks national television has been screening an incessant stream of stories lionising President Mugabe - inspiring leader, defiant liberationist, economic genius - and vilifying Mr Tsvangirai as a coup plotter and "tea boy" lackey of white farmers and the British Prime Minister, Tony Blair. Although over 750,000 Zimbabweans are in need of food aid, "news" items regularly heap praise on the controversial land seizure policy - which experts say is largely responsible for the food crisis.
The independent press is equally polarised, carrying extensive reports of violent attacks, vote rigging and countless pages of free ads for the MDC.
However, on the city streets and country lanes of Zimbabwe, the sense of violence and manipulation is not immediately obvious. It seems like a calm, albeit hungry, country. Downtown Harare is quiet and orderly, even when long queues for mealie meal - the staple food - stretch around the block. In the rolling countryside, buses are running, markets are bustling and smartly uniformed children are still attending school.
But ugly currents are swirling under the surface. In Plumtree, 11 km from the western border with Botswana, only the foolhardy venture out at night. One man who had done so pulled up a trouser leg to reveal axe wounds inflicted by roaming Zanu militia groups some nights previously.
By Thursday, the town police had already voted by post. Several locals said that officers had complained of being forced to show superiors their marked ballots. This reporter made contact with one such policeman, through an intermediary, who agreed to relate his experience. However, at the last minute he cancelled the meeting. The policeman later sent a message to say he feared for his safety.
Zanu denies its supporters are responsible for the violent attacks on civilians. The reports are just "MDC propaganda" said Bulawayo province chairman, Jabulani Sibanda. The courtyard outside his office was filled with a crowd of young men wearing Zanu-PF t-shirts. "If we find one of our members conducting in that fashion we call the police and get him charged," he added.
But international election observers say what they have seen is ample evidence of "seamless collusion" between Zanu, the police and the thugs. At least 70 militia bases have been established in public buildings across the country.
Suspected MDC supporters are abducted, taken to the camps and beaten or tortured.
"I had difficulty sleeping last night," one Commonwealth observer who had travelled across the country told The Irish Times yesterday morning. He had seen evidence of horrific injuries such as whipping and castration.
Fears of interference in the balloting process are growing. Zimbabwean civic organisations applied to have 12,000 agents - church members, teachers and other professionals - appointed to monitor the 4,500 polling stations. At the last minute the government accredited just 420.
There will be little opportunity for cheating in the urban areas, said Dr Reginald Matchaba Hove of the Election Support Network. However, the sudden increase in "mobile" polling stations in rural areas would be a "nightmare", he said.
"We could have polling stations appearing out of nowhere. And by the time they are discovered, 200 people might voted 1,000 times." The pool of potential opposition voters has been extensively shaved. An estimated 250,000 Zimbabweans of foreign lineage - mostly poor farm workers - have been disenfranchised. So have an estimated 20,000 white voters.
Over 1,000 elderly whites crowded into the Bulawayo courthouse last week in a last ditch effort to have the decision overturned. Among them was Waterford native Irene Greasley. She has lived in Africa for over 40 years, and the last 20 in Zimbabwe. "This is just chaos," she said. "We were living comfortably and suddenly our savings have become completely worthless." Although the white vote is statistically insignificant in an electorate of 5.6 million, those queuing were determined to have their votes restored.
"The reason is obvious," said Ms Greasley. "We just want a change."
The result of Zimbabwe's most important election ever will probably be released next Wednesday. Fears of subsequent civil upheaval are looming ever larger and there have been contradictory reports of planned coups. The election aftermath will be "very dangerous", said analyst Brian Raphtopolous. "Whoever wins there is going to be problems."
The army has already pledged its undying loyalty to Mr Mugabe. In January commander Gen Vitalis Zvinavashe said his forces would not support a leader who had not fought for liberation, a clear reference to Mr Tsvangirai. According to one report last week, all leave has been cancelled and troops recalled from the war in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in order to quell any possible post-poll disturbances.
However, it remains unclear whether the entire army shares Gen Zvinavashe's political sentiment. According to one knowledgeable source, 90 per cent of soldiers stationed in the DRC voted for the opposition in the May 2000 parliamentary elections.
On the same day the state Chronicle newspaper claimed that Britain and the US were preparing for a "major military offensive" after the poll.
However, not everybody believes that strife will automatically follow the poll. During the 1970s Zimbabwe's most famous Irishman was Bishop Donal Lamont, an outspoken critic of the racist Ian Smith regime. His modern-day successor is Archbishop Pius Ncube of Bulawayo, who has been a fearless opponent of President Mugabe's regime. He was depicted as a donkey alongside Mr Tsvangirai and Tony "Bliar" in the president's advertisements last week.
Zimbabweans are cowed by hunger and intimidation, he said, and even if the poll proves to be blatantly rigged they will accept the result. "They have bullied us, pushed us around and smothered us with propaganda. He's very good at divide and conquer," he said.
For Lovemore Madhuka of the NCA - whose opposition to a new constitution in February 2000 sparked the current crisis - Mr Mugabe doesn't need to fiddle the poll because the dirty work has already been done. "If all those things - the intimidation, propaganda and vote management - haven't already worked, now that would be a real revolution." What's clear is that both government and opposition still believe in the power of the ballot to express their point of view. Whether that will still be the case after this weekend's poll is anybody's guess.