ZIMBABWE:Although Zanu-PF is set to win Friday's election uncontested, its leader's political future is bleak, writes Tony Hawkins
MEMBERS OF Zimbabwe's ruling Zanu-PF party were in no mood yesterday to heed the growing international condemnation of President Robert Mugabe's plans to run unopposed in Friday's run-off election.
"We are going to show the world who really has the support of the people," a senior politician said.
His comments reflect the view widely held among members of the government that - since Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), formally withdrew from the election on Sunday saying he did not want people to die voting for him - they have the opposition in disarray, even "on the run".
There may be some truth to this. However, Mr Mugabe's longer-term game plan is much harder to read.
Analysts are predicting a very low turnout in the MDC's traditional urban strongholds on Friday. But in rural areas, where the worst of recent violence against opposition supporters has taken place and in Mr Mugabe's heartland of Mashonaland, he is likely to get a more substantial showing.
Within a week, therefore, the ageing Zimbabwean autocrat, in power already for 28 years, should automatically have secured another term as president.
His political future nevertheless looks bleak. The decision to go through with the poll has been almost universally condemned - even by some of Mr Mugabe's closest allies in Angola, Libya, China and South Africa - and the economy is now collapsing at an accelerating rate.
He lost his parliamentary majority in March and, while he enjoys extensive presidential powers, he will be unable to push legislation - such as the national budget - through parliament without the support of at least some members of the MDC.
A newly elected Zanu-PF member said this should not pose a problem.
"There are people in the MDC who will put the country before their party," he claimed.
This view is not shared by MDC parliamentarians who insist that there can be no accommodation with Zanu-PF as long as Mr Mugabe is president.
Moreover, the violence of the last few weeks has so soured relations between the two parties that, even with a new Zanu-PF leadership, it would be extremely difficult to form a coalition administration, even if it was headed by Mr Tsvangirai, they say.
Despite this, Mr Mugabe and his allies seem to believe they can find a way out of the impasse.
This may reflect the shift in power that has taken place in Zanu-PF, favouring the Joint Operational Command made up of security chiefs and senior ministers that are running the president's campaign and who care little for diplomatic and constitutional niceties. The Joint Operational Command is a secretive organisation comprising allies of Mr Mugabe who have everything to lose when his rule eventually ends.
The president and his security chiefs "need each other" to hang on to power, says Knox Chitiyo, a Zimbabwean who heads the African programme at London's Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies.
According to another analyst in Harare: "They are convinced the storm will die down once the election is over and the international media lose interest."
However, bankers, economists and businesspeople see it differently.
They believe that, as the economic crisis worsens, even the Joint Operational Command hardliners will come round to the view that Mr Mugabe has to go to enable an accommodation with the international community.
- (Financial Times service)