Pakistan:The state of emergency shows limits of western influence on Pakistan's military rulers, writes Julian Borgerand Declan Walshin Islamabad.
President Pervez Musharraf gave a firm commitment to British prime minister Gordon Brown and US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice that he would hold elections on schedule by January just before imposing a state of emergency, it emerged yesterday.
But hours later his government suggested he might renege on that pledge.
Mr Brown received the pledge on Friday, when he telephoned Mr Musharraf and expressed concern over reports that an emergency decree was being planned. "He [Mr Brown] said we had heard he was considering this and we thought it was a bad idea," a British official said.
The prime minister's office and the UK foreign office denied claims from Islamabad yesterday that Britain had, in fact, sanctioned Gen Musharraf's declaration.
A Musharraf aide said that the Pakistani president had "satisfied" objections raised by Mr Brown during the conversation.
"There was pressure from the US and Britain in the beginning. But later on, when the government gave them the detail that elections will be held on time, and the president will take off his uniform, they did not have any objections," the official said. A foreign office official insisted "no consent was implied or given".
British and US efforts to clarify the situation were ignored by the Pakistan government at the weekend. Calls to Islamabad by the British foreign secretary, David Miliband, were not answered, and Ms Rice reportedly fared no better.
The showdown has instead been put off until today's scheduled meeting between the Pakistani leader and western ambassadors in Islamabad.
The breakdown in communications was partly a result of chaos in Pakistan but it also reflects the limits to US and British influence in a volatile part of the world.
London, in particular, relies on the Pakistani government for help in the battle against the Taliban, including lines of supply to British troops in Afghanistan through northern Pakistan, and surveillance of the flow of would-be suicide bombers between the two countries.
The US is similarly caught between the desire to show muscular support for democracy and fear of destabilising further a nuclear state already under pressure from religious extremists.
Ms Rice yesterday threatened to review US aid to Pakistan, which amounts to about $11 billion (€7.6bn) since September 11th, 2001 - most of it military. But she later added that she would be "very surprised" if co-operation on counterterrorism was affected.
Bryan Whitman, a Pentagon spokesman, said Pakistan remained an important ally in the "war on terror". "Close co-ordination with the Pakistani military on operations continues." British economic influence is smaller. Civilian aid has totalled £480 million (€690m) over the past three years, and the UK government appeared even more reluctant than the US to use it as a stick.
The UK foreign office said it would "consider the implications for our development and other programmes in Pakistan". British officials said they would co-ordinate with their US counterparts and make a decision after today's scheduled meeting between Gen Musharraf and western ambassadors.
Gen Musharraf appears to have calculated that the threat of western ire was less immediate than the political challenge to his authority within the country. The head of the US central command, Admiral William Fallon, was in Pakistan on Friday, reportedly to warn the president not to impose the emergency, but the declaration was made while the admiral was still in town.
Ms Rice said she told Mr Musharraf that "even if something happens, we would expect the democratic elections to take place".
The response from Washington and London to the declaration was muted, with Britain expressing "concern" and the US "disappointment".
Stephen Cohen, of the Brookings Institution think tank, and the author of a new book, The Idea of Pakistan, said: "The American and British governments have dug such a big hole for themselves, they have no choice but to support Musharraf in whatever he does."
Pakistani officials said the elections could be postponed by up to a year. That could endanger the powersharing pact between the Pakistani leader and the former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto. The agreement was brokered by British and US officials, and led to Ms Bhutto's return to Pakistan last month.
If elections are postponed it could force the US to cut military aid, damaging Gen Musharraf's standing in the army, said Farzana Shaikh, of the Chatham House foreign policy think thank. She said Washington might try to find a more amenable partner in the military leadership, such as Lieut-Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiani, whom Mr Musharraf nominated as his potential successor as head of the army.
- (Guardian service)