While none of the candidates were particularly pleased with the entry into the presidential race on Monday of Derek Nally, none were particularly put out either. The probability is that the only male in the contest will draw votes from all four women. His support is seen as coming from a large number of men, from gardai, whom he led for many years, from the elderly, whose cause he has championed through Victim Support and other bodies, and from the law and order constituency. On this basis he is likely to damage Adi Roche least and the other three candidates in almost equal measure.
With this week's Irish Times/MRBI poll confirming early opinion that Mary McAleese would lead the race, followed by Mary Banotti, it all rests on transfers. Dana's transfers should go to Nally and McAleese; Nally's to McAleese and Banotti and there could still be a transfer pact between Roche and Banotti which may be the best chance either of them has of the prize. Which of them it will be depends on who is ahead in the first count and the odds are on Banotti.
As the campaign progresses it is emerging that party allegiance matters far less in this contest than in a Dail election. Whatever the outcome, there will be no change of government, so many voters are ignoring the parties and going for the individual. That means transfers will go all over the place.
Meanwhile, the handlers are working fulltime. McAleese's conservative and Catholic past is being downplayed and awkward questions on fertility and suchlike are being carefully treated; Banotti is staying low-profile, dignified and statesmanlike while playing up her political heritage and experience; Roche has toned down considerably her initial reaching out and embracing and is talking less; Dana is avoiding her fundamentalist supporters and bible-belt connections and keeping her campaign so much a family affair that some wonder if it is all really a ploy to relaunch her singing career. Nally is only getting going.