Ireland's low density pattern of housing development over the past decade is "storing up significant social, environmental, budgetary and economic problems in years to come", according to a major report published today.
The report, compiled by the National Economic and Social Council (NESC), says problems of sustainability and rising house prices were "exacerbated" by the dominance of low density housing in the context of inadequate transport infrastructure.
It blames poor land-use, planning and transport systems for the predominance of dispersed, car-dependent greenfield development, rather than seeking to accommodate a sufficient supply of housing in and near the main cities, especially Dublin.
The report highlights "widely-heard anxieties" over the stability of the housing market, the degree of inequality experienced during the economic boom, and the long-term sustainability of the pattern of housing developed in recent decades.
Given the remarkable strength of demand, it argues that a significant increase in Irish house prices was inevitable. Regional differences gave rise to higher prices in Dublin and a spread of development to dormitory settlements. But the report argues that, in understanding this pattern, "it is necessary to go beyond the standard 'withholding' versus 'zoning' debate".
Although supply of new housing had been delayed, it says Ireland has achieved very large increase in output by international standards. It rejects the idea that a greater quantity of housing must come "at the expense of quality development".
With the current high level of output, NESC says a balance between supply and demand "should be achieved in the coming years", when more housing will be needed, "although imbalances may persist for a time in certain locations or market segments".
Drawing on the 1999 report of Britain's Urban Task Force, chaired by Richard (Lord) Rogers, it emphasises that increased housing quantity and better quality neighbourhoods "can be complementary and, indeed, mutually reinforcing" without resort to high-rise. "The evolution of planning principles, strategies and procedures in the past five years has been very significant. An important next step is to ensure that the principles contained within the strategies and guidelines are translated into actual construction."
Too much of the new housing being built in Ireland, according to NESC, is characterised by "strong segregation" not just by social class, but also age. And its high level of car dependency would ultimately mean more institutional care for older people.
"The pattern is also recognised to have negative consequences for teenagers and young adults. Their independence is limited by having to be driven to school, sports and social events by parents," thus generating more traffic, as the report says.
The NESC strongly favours the development of well-designed "sustainable neighbourhoods" with easy access, even on foot, to shops, schools, public transport and recreational facilities.
If present trends persist, it warns that Dublin "could continue to grow as before, but because this was not envisaged in the National Spatial Strategy, it would not be provided with sufficient infrastructure to allow it function as a successful city-region".