New candidates hope to upset predictable Waterford poll

At least one change in personnel is guaranteed when Waterford voters go to the polls in the next general election.

At least one change in personnel is guaranteed when Waterford voters go to the polls in the next general election.

The big question, however, is whether anybody can succeed in breaking the mould in a constituency in which the three main parties are expected to hold comfortably what they have.

At first glance, Waterford looks predictable: two seats for Fianna Fail and one each for Fine Gael and Labour. Candidates are already lining up, though, to confound the pundits.

There will be at least one new face. Former Fine Gael Minister Austin Deasy, who has held a seat for 23 years and topped the poll last time out, announced a year ago he would be stepping down. He said yesterday he would not be changing his mind.

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"When your health isn't 100 per cent you've no business going again. It's a job that really drains you, mentally and physically," said Mr Deasy, who had a heart bypass operation two years ago.

His son, John, a third-year law student at UCC and a member of Waterford County Council, is favoured to succeed him, at least as a candidate, and would be likely to have Mr Maurice Cummins, the deputy mayor of Waterford, as his running mate.

It remains to be seen whether Fianna Fail will attempt to have the same citycounty geographical balance on its ticket. Its sitting TDs, Minister of State Mr Martin Cullen and Mr Brendan Kenneally, are based in Waterford city.

If given a free run both are almost certain to be re-elected. But county councillor Mr Ollie Wilkinson, who received 4,700 first preference votes in 1997, said yesterday he would be seeking the nomination again. "I have no doubt my two Fianna Fail colleagues might not be too charmed to see me on the ticket but [in 1997] I proved fairly useful to them at the end of the day," he said.

Mr Wilkinson, from the far west of the county, received one of the highest votes in the State in last year's local elections and would be a strong candidate. But with just 36 per cent of the vote in 1997 and 28 per cent in the previous general election, Fianna Fail has no chance of taking an extra seat.

The Workers' Party, for which Mr Paddy Gallagher briefly held a seat in the 1980s, will again be targeting the seat held by Labour's Mr Brian O'Shea.

Mr O'Shea survived the backlash against Labour three years ago and, despite seeing his first preference vote halved, still had 1,000 votes to spare after the first count over the Workers' Party's Mr Martin O'Regan. Mr O'Shea is confident he will improve on that performance.

Mr O'Regan, who hopes to be a candidate, acknowledges that his party's difficulty has been the concentration of its vote in Waterford city. However, he claims several factors such as the city's high unemployment rate, growing housing list and newly-introduced refuse collection charges will all contribute to a further swing towards the Workers' Party.

Waterford city councillor Mr Oliver Clery and Tramore town commissioner Mr Michael Flynn are both seeking the Progressive Democrats' nomination. Mr Clery has a high profile in the city because of his long-time involvement in the campaign to have the Waterford Institute of Technology upgraded to university status.

The party has substantial support in the city and took a seat when Mr Cullen represented the PDs. It faces an uphill battle on this occasion, however.