Constituency profile: Dublin North East:Dublin North East is a key constituency, an intense battleground in deciding whether there will be a Fianna Fáil- or Fine Gael-led government.
It is a three-seater since 2002, with an all-male line-out of candidates. The question is whether Fianna Fáil can hold its two seats or will the implosion of Fine Gael five years ago be reversed to take back the seat previously held by Michael Joe Cosgrave, with Labour retaining its place in the Dáil? The third and quite possible scenario is that Sinn Féin's Larry O'Toole could outflank both sides to take a seat.
There is speculation that Dr Michael Woods is the more vulnerable of the two Fianna Fáil candidates. A TD for 30 years, however, he is a wily political survivor who has served in every FF cabinet since he became government chief whip in 1979.
He left it to the last minute to decide whether he would retire or run again, which might have some effect on his campaign.
His running-mate Martin Brady is an equally shrewd TD who has served the constituency since 1997, having first contested the general election in 1992. Both have high constituency profiles, a strong local work rate, and have previously co-operated well to share the constituency.
The constituency spreads from well-to-do Howth and Sutton across Baldoyle, Raheny and out to Darndale, Coolock and Artane where middle, working and disadvantaged classes compete for space in an increasingly high-density constituency.
This is the part of Dublin where many first-time buyers are moving to avoid the long commute from outer counties. The demographic has begun to change considerably and the constituency might yet again become a four-seater, with up to 20,000 housing units being built in the northwest fringe of the constituency, the size of Waterford. At the same time there remains a significant well-established and traditional electorate.
Fine Gael, which could once boast two seats in the old four-seat days, has an entirely new team, led by entrepreneur Brody Sweeney, who founded the O'Brien's Sandwich Bar empire. In the last election FG's vote dropped from 18.9 per cent in 1997 to 15.4 per cent and even with a so-called "mood for change", the party has to find a lot of votes to elect a TD. A business guru but political novice, Sweeney has run a very high-profile campaign since he was selected in 2005 with billboards, bus-stop posters and leaflet drops as well as building up a local constituency work profile.
He is running with Cllr Terence Flanagan, who was elected to Dublin City Council in 2004 for the Artane ward. A long-time campaign worker for party deputy leader Richard Bruton, Flanagan was added to the ticket late last year amid concerns about the potential to win a seat.
Labour's Tommy Broughan, first elected in 1992, survived five years later when the "Spring tide" ebbed. A solid and ever-present constituency worker, who has consistently called for a new inquiry into the Stardust disco fire, it would be a shock were he not re-elected.
An equally prodigious worker, long-time resident and veteran of four general elections, Larry O'Toole secured the second- highest vote in the State in the 2004 local elections when he polled a whopping 33 per cent.
He has worked consistently and while his strongest base is in socially disadvantaged Darndale and Artane area, he now has a recognition factor in the leafier ends of the constituency.
The Green Party candidate is Howth-based Cllr David Healy, who was a Fingal councilor until 1999 and elected to Dublin City Council in 2004. The Progressive Democrats candidate is first-timer Keith Redmond, a dentist who appeared in recent TV advertisments for toothpaste.
In this constituency the "swing" is the thing. FG needs a strong change to benefit, while FF could save its seats if its traditional heartland remains loyal.
But in the uncertainty, Sinn Féin could move ahead between the two old foes.
LOCAL ISSUES:
Community and sports facilities in high-density, disadvantaged areas are an issue in a constituency with a still significant drugs problem. Crime, especially an increase in drugs-related murders, is a big concern, as are antisocial behaviour, Beaumont Hospital, traffic and graffiti.
A major population influx and mushrooming of housing developments have created significant infrastructural problems. There is poor public transport supply in a burgeoning area, although a new Dart station is expected to open between Portmarnock and Howth Junction, but this has already been delayed.
VERDICT:FF - 2, Lab - 1
