US:BARACK OBAMA'S campaign strategists identified Indiana a month ago as the place to stop Hillary Clinton's campaign. Obama himself, on a bus tour of Indiana a week ago, predicted the state could be the tiebreaker.
If Clinton were to lose Indiana and North Carolina, which both go to the polls on May 6th, it would be all over for her. Polls suggest North Carolina will go to Obama but there is uncertainty about the outcome in Indiana. Surveying the remaining contests, David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist, said last month: "Pennsylvania is an uphill battle for us. West Virginia is an uphill battle for us. Kentucky is an uphill battle for us. Indiana is going to be a real fight."
A consensus has grown in Washington that Clinton stands a good chance in Indiana based on its similar demographic to Ohio and Pennsylvania - which she won by 10 per cent. It has the same dying industries and job losses, struggling farmers and an overwhelmingly white population.
But there is a big difference from Ohio and Pennsylvania. Indiana borders Obama's home state and stronghold, Illinois. Many of the residents in its northwest corner work in Chicago. They watch Chicago television and know Obama well.
The area has a big predominantly African-American population, which is likely to vote for Obama, and smaller remnants of Poles, Latvians and other early immigrant groups, who are likely to go for Clinton.
Even in the conservative southern part of the state, residents are exposed daily to the Chicago media, which is generally favourable to Obama.
The other big difference from Ohio and Pennsylvania is that Clinton began there with built-in advantages of between 10 per cent and 20 per cent.
In Indiana, the polls are closer. The early trend in the state had Clinton ahead but the last two polls show Obama in the lead. A poll published on Friday by the Mike Downs Centre at Indiana University showed Obama leading Clinton 50 per cent to 45 per cent, with 5 per cent undecided.
Another difference from Pennsylvania is that while that contest was restricted to registered Democratic voters, Indiana is open to all voters, Democrats, Republicans and independents, with the latter having voted overwhelmingly for Obama in earlier primaries and caucuses.
The Democratic party leadership in Indiana has already issued threats of legal action against Republicans thinking of making mischief by voting for the candidate they feel would be more easily beaten by John McCain in November.
Indiana and North Carolina are followed a week later by West Virginia, one of the poorest states and predominantly blue-collar, which should go to Clinton, and the week after that by Oregon, which should go to Obama, and Kentucky, which should go to Clinton. She should also take Puerto Rico, while Obama is favourite to take South Dakota on June 3rd, with Montana, on the same day, still open.- ( Guardian service )