Donegal South West:The onward march of Sinn Féin, the political resurrection of Fine Gael and the threat to Fianna Fáil are the hallmarks of the contest in the Donegal South West three-seater.
There was a time when the constituency was very predictable, with two Fianna Fáil TDs and one Fine Gael. That changed in 1997 when Independent Tom Gildea was elected at the expense of one of the Fianna Fáil seats.
Gweedore-based Sinn Féin councillor Pearse Doherty has had his eyes firmly set on a Dáil seat since he was elected to Donegal County Council in 2004, polling 1,892 first preferences in the Gweedore electoral area.
He also polled an impressive 65,321 first preferences in the European elections in the north-west constituency.
Fine Gael suffered a setback when Dinny McGinley announced in the summer of last year that he was not seeking re-election. But he later changed his mind and re-entered the fray with a fresh enthusiasm.
First elected to the Dáil in 1982, he has been an impressive performer and was among those who survived the party's meltdown in 2002 when he polled 4,378 first preferences and secured his seat on the eighth count. Any Fine Gael TD who survived the wipe-out of the last election must be considered a strong bet to win this time in what are much more favourable circumstances for the party.
However, given the strength of the two sitting Fianna Fáil TDs, Minister for Agriculture Mary Coughlan and Minister of State for Transport Pat "the Cope" Gallagher, and Doherty's challenge, it will be a fight to the finish.
According to a poll in the Donegal Democrat, Coughlan will head the poll with 33 per cent of the vote, followed by McGinley on 26 per cent, Doherty on 19 per cent and Gallagher on 15 per cent.
This put paid to the conventional pre-election wisdom that McGinley would lose his seat. However, the poll was taken before the swing back to Fianna Fáil in national polls and how this will influence voters in a remote and independent-minded constituency remains to be seen.
The loss of the Fianna Fáil seat in 1997 to Gildea occurred when Gallagher decided to opt for a career as an MEP. But he was enticed back last time, with a full ministerial post rumoured to be the prize if elected, and Fianna Fáil returned to their dominant position in the constituency.
Gallagher topped the poll with 7,740 first preferences, followed by Coughlan with 7,257, while Doherty, then something of an unknown, polled 2,696. But Doherty's political star has been rising since then and he seems destined to take a seat.
With the Fine Gael resurgence, and Coughlan's strong performance in the Donegal Democrat poll, it would seem that Gallagher is the most vulnerable. However, it would take quite a dramatic fall from his 2002 poll-topping performance to see him lose his seat.
McGinley had a running mate, former TD Jim White, the last time. White outpolled him by 302 votes on the first count but McGinley received sufficient transfers to take a seat.
Without a second candidate, he will need a high first-preference vote this time to hold his seat. There will be much interest, too, if local polls are correct, in the size of Coughlan's surplus and how it might help Gallagher.
Overall, a picture is emerging of one safe Fianna Fáil seat with a major battle for the two remaining seats between Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin.
Anything is possible. But there is no doubt the Fianna Fáil dominance of the seats, restored in 2002 when Gallagher opted for national politics, is under threat.
VERDICT: 1 - FF, 1 - FG, 1 - SF. (SF gain from FF)
