The public may be bewildered, but the parties believe economics is the key battleground, writes Mark Brennock, Political Correspondent
Since last Friday Fianna Fáil has concentrated all its fire on attempting to undermine Fine Gael's economic figures. On Friday night Fianna Fáil officials were briefing reporters to the effect that the main Opposition party's figures did not add up, and that its manifesto spending and tax cutting commitments left it a staggering €6.5 billion short of its projections.
By last night, however, Fianna Fáil had not come near proving its case. Yesterday morning it produced a most detailed set of accounts purporting to show that Fine Gael had left €5 billion worth of current spending commitments out of its figures, had made no provision for its tax reductions costing €1.9 billion in a full year and had failed to take account of inflation in making calculations up to 2006.
But yesterday evening Fine Gael's finance spokesman, Mr Jim Mitchell and party advisers produced a detailed and coherent rebuttal of the claims. They maintained that to come up with its alleged €6.5 billion Fine Gael shortfall figure, Fianna Fáil had made serious errors in its analysis of Fine Gael's figures.
It had counted Fine Gael's spending commitments twice, Mr Mitchell said. It had ignored the fact that the Department of Finance figures on which all parties have based their promises includes a substantial provision for tax cuts anyway, and seriously underestimated the amount of money available in the Social Insurance Fund.
Fianna Fáil last night expressed scepticism about the Fine Gael rebuttal. Meanwhile Fine Gael said it was examining Fianna Fáil's figures and was confident it could point to major flaws in them. Labour has already claimed Fianna Fáil has made hugely overoptimistic assumptions of how well it will control current spending in the last two years of the next government, a claim hotly contested by Fianna Fáil.
The politics of the election campaign so far has been reduced to highly complex dispute over macro-economic accountancy. There is an acknowledgment among many officials in all parties that the detail is a serious turn-off for the voters.
But the parties, particularly Fianna Fáil, believe the matter is hugely important to the outcome of the campaign. Their voter research has showed them that,while the public is concerned about funding the health service and infrastructural development, they are likely to be alarmed at the suggestion that the next government could be reckless with the public finances, thus damaging economic prospects for the future. The detail may be mind-numbing, but the objective - portraying the other side as arm-chancing book-cookers - is central to the campaign.
It was the giveaway Fianna Fáil 1977 manifesto, and the degeneration of the Exchequer finances in the years after its implementation, that made the single most important contribution to that public fear of economic recklessness. Ironically it is a new generation of Fianna Fáil that is now seeking most obviously to trade on that fear, putting itself forward as the party of fiscal responsibility.
Fianna Fáil's very impressive media machine is working full-time to paint the Opposition as reckless spendthrifts. It has done so through putting forward detailed papers purporting to show the Opposition as financially irresponsible, and more alarmist claims such as the one from Mr Dermot Ahern that Labour plans to borrow money to pay for current spending (it doesn't).
Today the Taoiseach will attend the Fianna Fáil daily briefing to talk about pensions. Fianna Fáil sources say their research shows that voters don't like the idea of anyone going near money earmarked for pensions, no matter how reasonably they argue their case.
Labour's plan to divert three-quarters of the money set aside annually to pay for pensions in 2025 and later will make voters very uneasy, they believe.
The success of the Fianna Fáil press machine can be seen in how the Labour plan is portrayed. While the party points out that the pension fund will still grow significantly under its proposal, the media portrayal of the plan is different. The plan is portrayed almost universally as "raiding the pension fund".
The Taoiseach is to attend a number of the party's daily press briefings in its press centre in Dublin's Treasury Building. Promoting Bertie Ahern as a cheerful, trustworthy leader is one of the central aims of Fianna Fáil handlers.
Most of this promotion is to be done in handshaking meet-the-people walkabouts. But this morning it will seek to link him directly to its financial promises in the public mind. Today's issue is pensions: your pensions are safe with me, will be the Taoiseach's message. You'd never know what the other crowd might do, he will suggest.
Expect economic figures to dominate the campaign for some days to come. It is not by accident that the parties have produced the most detailed economic manifestos ever this time around.
The parties believe the public wants investment in health, roads, transport, childcare and other areas. At the same time, they believe they want to be told the economy is safe, and there will be no vote-buying.
The parties will work until May 17th to show they can satisfy the electorate on both counts.