At first glance, yesterday's High Court ruling that sitting TDs must count the cost of free Oireachtas services towards their electoral expenses looks as if it could cause mayhem in relation to today's election. But in practice, it may not.
The value of these services is significant. Political sources estimate that three weeks of a secretary's salary and free telephone use could be valued at between €3,000 and €4,000. Oireachtas envelopes together with free postage would cost over €400 per thousand, and some deputies have stockpiled these in advance of the election.
An additional and unexpected extra cost of over €5,000 could push many deputies over the spending limits, putting them in breach of the Electoral Act. Under the legislation candidates in three-seat constituencies can spend €25,394, in four-seaters €31,743 and in five-seaters, €38,092.
Those guilty of going over the limit can face criminal prosecution. However, the rules as they are understood have changed on the eve of the election, and candidates in this position could reasonably argue that the breach of the limit was inadvertent, thus avoiding prosecution.
But an inadvertent breach of the limit does not protect a TD from a challenge. A non-TD, who lost very narrowly to an outgoing deputy, could take a case to the High Court claiming the extra spending by the winner had made the difference.
The court, if it found in favour of such a challenge, could order the election to take place in that constituency again, or could even reorder who got elected, legal sources said last night. It would be difficult to see the judiciary making such a dramatic intervention, but it cannot be ruled out.
But the parties also have what one source last night called "wriggle room". When they make their spending returns on July 6th, they must stipulate what proportion was spent locally by the candidate, and what proportion was ceded to head office. One source speculated that if a narrowly elected candidate had exceeded the spending limit, they could construct their return to show the overspending was done by the party at national level.