The shadow of past contenders hangs heavily over the sprawling Munster constituency in the forthcoming European Parliament elections. Votes previously commanded by those who are abstaining from the fray this time are up for grabs and could determine whether or not there is to be any change in the representation.
Europe will be omnipresent in Munster from this month on - in the form of thousands of European cars and coaches bringing this year's predicted bumper crop of tourists. This seasonal cash crop will be the main focus of attention for many of Munster's 808,000 registered European election voters, even as the local candidates for Strasbourg seats canvass the towns and villages on the tortuous campaign trail.
The four sitting MEPs - two Fianna Fail, one Fine Gael and one independent - all hope to retain their seats and, on the face of it, have the advantage of a high public profile. But the constituency dynamics are changing and nothing is certain. There are 53,000 extra voters on the register this time around, between first-time voters, returned emigrants and new European residents, and their allegiance may be crucial.
In addition Mr Des O'Malley, who polled 31,600 first preferences in 1994, is not standing; nor is Ms Nora Bennis (now of the National Party) who polled 18,400 as an independent in 1994. Also absent is the Workers' Party, whose Mr Martin O'Regan took 6,300 first preferences last time, giving a further 56,300 votes to be carved up.
With the quota likely to be around 70,000 there is at least the possibility of change. If there is to be a surprise, it could be engineered by Labour's Ms Paula Desmond, who is likely to be the only woman candidate and has a solid record as a Cork city councillor. She has identified the GM foods issue and rural policy as the main pillars for her campaign.
Her performance will be a measure of the electoral effectiveness of the merger of Labour and Democratic Left. She points to a core Labour vote of 51,000 across Munster in the 1997 general election and says 40,000 first preferences "would get me elected."
However Mr Dave Harmon, press officer for the two FF Euro-candidates - the veteran Mr Gerry Collins, from Co Limerick, and the young Corkman, Mr Brian Crowley - says the "four very polished MEPs in Munster" are "tough players. It's going to be hard to dislodge any of them."
Mr Collins took almost 50,000 first preferences last time out, and Brian Crowley a massive 84,400 - the highest personal vote in the Irish Euro-constituencies. Even allowing for slippage, they have a strong prospect of securing Fianna Fail's two Euro seats.
All is not sweetness and light in the FF camp, however. A talking point already is Mr Crowley's campaign. The Bandon man was off the starting blocks early - "He's been on the campaign trail since mid-February. He's covering a lot of ground," said one of his personal staff.
Almost every major centre in Munster is well covered by Mr Crowley's posters with his colour photograph. The FF logo is inconspicuous and only in relatively tiny script does it mention: "Continue your preferences for Gerard Collins". In contrast, the official FF poster carries equal-sized pictures of both candidates but is scarce in Co. Cork. The Collins camp is said to be far from pleased at the highly personalised Crowley campaign. "You'd hardly know he was running for Fianna Fail at all," said an activist.
Mr Crowley, however, points out that for the first time the candidate's photographs will be on the ballot papers and that a recognisable face is important.
Fine Gael has a solid vote of 70,000-80,000 in the constituency. Its lead candidate, sitting MEP John Cushnahan, has a good track record in the European Parliament and a strong support base in his own Limerick constituency. He polled some 43,000 first preferences in the 1989 Euro-election and 37,000 in 1994.
His running mate is Cork City Alderman Jim Corr, prominent in local politics but lacking a wider regional and national profile. His PR advisers insist that he accepted the nomination only as long as he would not be "a hind-tit candidate" running as a "sweeper" for Mr Cushnahan. Mr Corr intends "to make a real fight for this," and he is banking on popular support in the city of which he was twice lord mayor.
The fourth sitting MEP, the independent candidate, Mr Pat Cox, is something of an enigma. As a Progressive Democrat candidate in 1989, he swept in with 85,500 first preferences. But as an independent in 1994, after his break with the PDs, his vote slumped to 29,000 and he squeezed in without reaching the quota.
"The territory is huge - it incorporates 13 Dail constituencies," he says. "You need to have a reasonable chance that your name carries reasonably well in all parts of it. It's a very difficult balance to get right."
But Mr Cox, fresh from his prominent role in the EU Parliament's recent dramatic tussle with the Commission, enjoys an impressive national profile and is an accomplished media performer, with the most skilfully designed and up-to-date web-site of all the candidates.
His relationship with his former PD colleagues is problematic. Certain "propositions" were broached at a meeting between the PD general secretary and a member of Mr Cox's organisation just before the recent PD conference, but the negotiations broke down. The party subsequently talked to several personalities in the search for a suitable candidate, but when nominations closed at midday on Monday, no PD candidate had been entered.
A "wild card" in the contest is the Sinn Fein candidate, veteran republican Mr Martin Ferris from Co. Kerry, who leaped to prominence through his inclusion in high-ranking Sinn Fein delegations since his release after serving 10 years in prison for his part in the Marita Ann gun-running episode in 1984.
In the 1994 election a lesser known SF candidate, Mr Kieran McCarthy, polled just under 5,200 first preferences. But in the 1989 contest, the highly prominent Father Paddy Ryan drew 31,000 votes. Mr Ferris, who is also running in the local elections in the North Kerry constituency, could bring out a substantial republican vote, and while he may not have a realistic chance of a Euro seat, his transfers will certainly influence the outcome for the other parties.
The Green Party, whose Mr Dan Boyle polled 10,000 first preferences in 1994, has selected a young newcomer to stand in Munster this time. Waterford-based Mr Ben Nutty (27) has a Master's in European Studies from UCD and is a former secretary of the party's North Co. Dublin branch.
Despite the obvious central importance of European policies for the Munster region in terms of matters such as regional funding, agriculture and fisheries, it appears inevitable that personalities rather than policy issues will dominate the European election contest there. Yet all the candidates are striving earnestly to convey to the electorate that the European Parliament and its debates are vitally relevant to Munster and its people.
All fear, however, that the European message may be lost sight of in the smoke of the local elections battle - and that the voter turnout in the Euro contest may be even lower than the 48 per cent recorded in Munster in 1994.