ANALYSIS: Vote-transfer arrangements have been a key element in previous elections and Labour might have been well advised to enter a pact this time with Fine Gael, writes Richard Sinnott
Inter-party transfer arrangements have been an on-off feature of Irish elections over the years. There is strong evidence such arrangements work, both in influencing the transfer behaviour of the parties' supporters and in affecting the number of seats won by various parties.
Prime examples of the impact on voting behaviour of appeals by party leaders for transfers to particular parties can be found in the five elections between 1973 and 1982 (transfers from Fine Gael to Labour and vice versa) and in the election of 1997 (Fianna Fáil to the PDs and vice versa). PD to Fianna Fáil transfers in 1997 were a crucial factor in giving Fianna Fáil its remarkable bonus in proportion of seats relative to proportion of votes. That bonus was the basis on which Fianna Fáil was able to put together what turned out to be a very durable coalition government.
This election is unusual in that there are two explicit but unreciprocated transfer arrangements. Fianna Fáil has called on its supporters to transfer to the PDs and Fine Gael has called on its supporters to transfer to Labour and to other Opposition parties, but in neither case has the putative partner returned the compliment. The reasons for this reluctance are understandable in both cases but are perhaps more compelling in the case of the PDs.
The PD dilemma is acute. They want to be back in government. The only realistic chance of this is to be back in government with Fianna Fáil. The way to achieve this might seem to be to make a transfer pact with Fianna Fáil, as in 1997. The problem is that, since Fianna Fáil may be within striking distance of an overall majority, any further assistance from PD transfers might be the very thing that puts Fianna Fáil over the majority-seats threshold, thus making the PDs redundant. Hence Mary Harney's reluctance to advocate transfers to Fianna Fáil.
This reluctance is reinforced by the need for the party to distance itself from Fianna Fáil to maximise its first-preference vote and to encourage transfers to itself from supporters of other parties. Given their partnership in government over the last five years, this could be seen as playing hardball. It could also be seen as, well, politics.
Labour's situation and the reasons for its reluctance to enter into a transfer pact are more complex. It is true it is under no obligation to Fianna Fáil. It is almost 10 years since it was in government with that party and the intervening period has put lots of clear blue water between the two parties. It could quite readily have entered into a transfer arrangement with Fine Gael that would not have had any implications for its relations with Fianna Fáil. A pact with Fine Gael would also have fitted in with the interpretation that its substantial electoral reverse in 1997 was due to its partnership with Fianna Fáil. (On the other hand, this particular interpretation is not as well supported by the evidence as is often assumed.)
The Labour Party's most realistic chance of being in government lies in forming a coalition with Fianna Fáil. For this to happen, Fianna Fáil must lose rather than gain seats. The best chance of bringing this about would have been a firm transfer pact with Fine Gael.
The two parties would still have faced the problem of there being a substantial number of constituencies in which the greatest threat to Fine Gael seats comes from the Labour Party. Even allowing for this, the effect of a pact between Fine Gael and Labour would have been to shore up vulnerable seats for both parties. However, the preferences of Labour supporters do not appear to lie in this direction. The second Irish Times/MRBI poll of the campaign showed a clear preference for Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach among Labour voters and a clear plurality in favour of a coalition between Fianna Fáil and Labour. The transfer intentions of Labour supporters are consistent with these views - the largest block of Labour transfers head in Fianna Fáil's rather than Fine Gael's direction. The problem for Labour is that, given current voting trends, these transfers will contribute to putting Fianna Fáil out of the realm where it might have to turn to Labour for support in forming a government.
Does the poll evidence give any indication of what PD supporters are likely to do in response to the party's reticence towards Fianna Fáil? The problem here is that, given the very small size of the PD first- preference vote in the polls, the basis for making any inferences about the likely behaviour of this group is tenuous. Treating the evidence strictly as a straw in the wind, it may be of some significance that the transfer intentions of the small number of PD voters in the two Irish Times/MRBI polls have substantially changed over the course of the campaign, to the detriment of Fianna Fáil and in favour of Fine Gael. While the strategy of the PD leadership is a subtle response to an acute political dilemma, there is some (very tentative) evidence that it may be having its intended effect.
• Professor Richard Sinnott is Director of the Public Opinion and Political Behaviour research programme at the Institute for the Study of Social Change in UCD