The Irish and British governments are set to propose a phased restoration of the North's political institutions to be completed by next spring, in exchange for an IRA commitment to destroy its weapons and end its war for good, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent, in Brussels.
The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, said yesterday the plan would see the Northern Assembly restored first in "shadow" form, with the power-sharing Executive to be functioning by spring. This would be part of a deal involving a permanent end to the IRA's campaign and the resolution of the decommissioning issue which has plagued the political process.
Speaking to reporters in Brussels, Mr Ahern conceded that he and the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, had not yet decided what to do if political agreement was not reached in Northern Ireland by the deadline of November 25th that they have set.
Waiting until after the Westminster elections, which many expect next May, was not "an acceptable strategy", however.
After a 75-minute meeting with Mr Blair on the margins of the European Council meeting, Mr Ahern said they had gone through the proposals they would put to the parties, probably the week after next, unless the parties had themselves reached agreement by then.
"If there is agreement we will move into shadow Assembly format, then on into the spring into full Executive mode," he said.
His stated uncertainty over what the governments would do if the parties did not accept their proposals comes after Mr Gerry Adams demanded "power sharing" between the two governments and the dissolution of the Assembly following a failure to reach agreement. At a Sinn Féin dinner in New York, he said unionists must not be "allowed to determine the pace and depth of change".
The Taoiseach said the elements of a deal had been outlined by Mr Blair in his speech at the Belfast Harbour Masters in October 2002, and had not changed.
First, there had to be a resolution of decommissioning. The independent decommissioning body "would find a satisfactory way of ending the decommissioning argument, either in phases or all together".
Second, the IRA would have to issue instructions to its people to end the conflict and enter a different mode.
Third, unionists would have to guarantee that if the political institutions were re-established they would be stable, and "they wouldn't bring them down again". Finally, issues such as policing, demilitarisation and other matters in the joint declaration by the two governments would be resolved.
If all of these things happened, "we would re-establish the Assembly and the Executive and get ahead with the North/South bodies", Mr Ahern said.
If no deal is reached by the week after next, "then we will put our best shot to the parties and seek agreement". They hoped not to have to consider how to proceed if those efforts failed. "We are looking at lots of suggestions but it is not the way we want to go."
The negotiations had "nearly got there" but failed in the past, when the largest parties involved were the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP. "People then changed their votes and voted for the DUP and Sinn Féin" and the governments were now continuing to try to resolve the issues mainly through talks with those parties.
"Two years on we are reaching the end of that phase. Some people say we should wait until after the Westminster election, some say we will never do it. Our preferred position is to do it now.
"It's not going to change. These are the issues and we are trying to bring finality to it. If we don't do that we have to consider where to go. The best solution is that they agree to this. It will create problems across all communities if we don't achieve this.
"After so many decades of conflict and turmoil, we are now down to literally a handful of issues. We were looking at all of the pros and cons this morning, and our best intelligence on where the parties are at.
"Everyone has to be prepared to take risks. I do not believe that if there is a will to finish it once and for all that these risks are unmanageable for any one party," Mr Ahern said.