Well that's that innit? The whole Brexit thing is over. No more angst. No more uncertainty. No more not knowing. At least we know don't we?
I’m afraid not. The Tories might have walloped Labour and the Lib Dems in the election, but Boris Johnson has still not taken his foot off the accelerator. I think during this term of parliament we will get weekly reminders of Boris living up to his bombast.
At this moment, it would have been good for everyone to pause, take a deep breath and perhaps dip their toes into the water. Instead Boris has bellyflopped right in with a Bill that will essentially outlaw an extension to trade negotiations after the end of this year.
There are election promises, and there are fantasies, and promising a quick trade deal on Brexit always seemed to fall into the latter category. Getting a good trade deal done - Canada Super Plus anyone? - in 11 months will only be possible if it’s skeletal and parks most of the things that will be important.
It took seven years for Canada and the EU to negotiate their CETA deal. Sure, Britain starts from an advanced position, but it is still madly ambitious.
Ah sure, Johnson can always die in a ditch and then resurrect himself after three days as he did with the Brexit deadline. But by entering a new clause to the Brexit deal, making it compulsory to forge the new deal on a future trading relationship by December 31st, Johnson has made the possibility of a no deal live again. So within days of the new parliament, we have learnt that - politically - 2020 will be the year of living dangerously.
Meanwhile, Labour, a divided party that was trounced in the general election, will have a difficult decision to make in the next eight to ten weeks on who will be best to help it to rise from the nadir. Obviously Momentum is a large component within the party at the moment, and the left union Unite is a huge player.
Therefore it is no surprise the candidate most closely associated with Corbynism, Rebecca Long-Bailey, is the clear leadership favourite. Her cause will be helped by the decision of her friend, Angela Rayner, to stand aside to ease her candidacy. Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer, a moderate, doesn’t look like he will have a chance, with Lisa Nandy looking like the preferred candidate of the centre-left.
Fishing for votes
In Brussels, negotiations that will mean a huge difference to people’s lives continue today. These are the annual row over fish quotas. While the EU is meant to be slashing quotas for endangered species such as cod (the stock levels have fallen dramatically of late), they always miraculously rise in the final hours of negotiations.
On a general level, EU states have agreed to tough new rules on discards (these are healthy fish dumped overboard by trawlers to meet quotas), but they have consistently been ignored. And there seems little appetite among maritime states to implement them.
For Ireland, it is a critical period for our fisheries. So much of our pelagic fishing and white fishing occurs in UK waters. It was interesting to see Minister for the Marine Michael Creed ask the UK to show its hand over the weekend and begin negotiations to give Ireland and other EU states access to its water in exchange for concessions in the areas of financial services and aviation.
Moving pieces on election chess board
It was a day of unexpected movement yesterday. Senator Paudie Coffey has said he will not stand for the party at the next general election, leaving Fine Gael in Waterford with neither of its TDs standing. Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil councillor Norma Foley has been added to the ticket in Kerry, along with sitting TD John Brassil and Cllr Norma Moriarty. The Tralee-based Foley will be a threat to Brassil as much as she will to candidates from other parties.
Best reads
Why are premiums so high and why are profits of insurance companies so high? The insurance industry claims it is high insurance claims. The Central Bank report yesterday begs to differ.
It is our main lead today as political parties call for action to prevent such bumper profits.
Sports and politics should never mix, but they do all the time. Shane Ross and Brendan Griffin, the two Ministers with sport portfolios, met five senior FAI officials yesterday to call for radical root-and-branch changes in the troubled organisation. The Government has rejected a plea from the FAI for €30 million in support.
In a statement, the Ministers said “the FAI is in a dark place, the brand has been damaged and much work needs to be done”.
They added: “The government cannot provide direct financial support to the FAI. We are finalising a mechanism to get our youth field programme funding to the front line. Our priorities are players at every level, staff in the organisation, volunteers across the country and supporters.”
Here is our report on the meeting.
Pat Leahy reports the Minister for Justice and Equality will today bring proposals to Cabinet for the regulations governing a severance programme targeted at senior managers in the Garda organisation.
The purpose of the programme is to incentivise 30 Garda members at senior ranks to take retirement before the maximum retirement age of 60 years, and to suppress the 30 posts that fall vacant as a result of the organisational restructuring.
Fintan O'Toole argues trouble will follow this UK election.
Brigid Laffan writes London must now decide what form of Brexit it wants.
Playbook
The Cabinet meets this morning with a full agenda. Leaders’ Questions will be taken at 2pm.
Sinn Féin’s Private Members’ motion this evening is on the rights of workers in voluntary health companies and agencies.
The Health Committee will discuss the CervicalCheck review by the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists with patient representatives Stephen Teap and Lorraine Walsh at 5pm.
The Seanad Special Select Committee on the Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union will unveil its Brexit Progress Report in Leinster House at 11am.
The Committee examining issues affecting Travellers is looking at the high unemployment rates in that community.
