D-Day in Westminster as Brexit vote arrives

Good morning.

The first law of politics, said George Osborne, previously chancellor of the Exchequer and now promoted to newspaper editor, is that you have to be able to count.

Today is the day for counting heads on Brexit, when what the BBC insists on referring to as "Theresa May's deal" – actually an agreement made between the European Union and the government of the United Kingdom – is put to a vote in the House of Commons.

Everyone is expecting defeat for Mrs May - and possibly a huge defeat. What happens next will largely depend on the numbers today. The prospects for the vote dominate coverage this morning and will be the only story all day until the House divides tonight.

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If you’re one of those people who is fed up with Brexit, well, sorry. Everyone else, welcome to the first politics digest of 2019.

Mrs May made her pitch yesterday, first in Stoke-on-Trent - in what looked like a china shop, would you believe - and then at the dispatch box of the House of Commons where she urged MPs to give her deal “a second look”. She will return to the House today before the vote, but her situation - on today’s vote at least - seems hopeless.

Mindful of the unpredictability of politics in the Age of Brexit, pundits are cautious this morning about guesstimating a margin of defeat. But most agree Mrs May has as many as 400 MPs ranged against her. That would mean - at least - defeat by more than 100 votes, and possibly a lot more.

Even for someone as resilient as the British prime minister, that would take some coming back from.

The headlines in the British papers make grim reading for her.

"Tory Eurosceptics threaten May with humiliation," says the FT. "Out of allies, out of time," booms the Telegraph. "May facing crushing defeat," warns the Guardian. "May braced for historic defeat," says the Times.

Mrs May’s arguments are being distilled down to one stark warning: if you don’t accept this deal, then you might get no Brexit at all. She also told the House yesterday that rejecting her deal would imperil the Union, perhaps opening the door to Scottish independence or a united Ireland.

For Conservatives, these are stark warnings right enough, but Mrs May now lacks the authority to make them credibly. Tonight is likely to diminish her authority and credibility further. As a theatrical spectacle, it is compelling. As process of needless national self-flagellation, it is tragic. As a drama of high politics, it is fascinating.

Here's today's lead story.

Meanwhile, in Dublin

The Cabinet meets in Government Buildings this morning, where Ministers will consider four separate memoranda on Brexit - all of which were considered too sensitive to circulate in the normal manner yesterday.

Two of them concern preparations for Brexit in transport and health, where the supply of some medicines has become a concern; one details discussions with the British government on maintaining the Common Travel Area; and the fourth is a briefing on the legislation necessary to deal with a potential no-deal Brexit. It will be published as an omnibus Brexit Bill at the end of February and passed quickly in March.

Fine Gael held a novel “winter think-in” yesterday, gathering TDs, senators and candidates in advance of the Dáil’s return today. There was lots of talk about climate change, which, having more or less ignored for several years, Fine Gael now pledges to do the divil and all about. We shall see.

The Taoiseach has started himself, declaring yesterday he was "trying to eat less meat". Richard Bruton is charged with coming up with - you've guessed it - a "whole of government plan." Our report is here.

But though the Taoiseach resolutely refused to comment on the British vote, Brexit is the overriding concern of Government. It will have direct, on-the-ground effects in a million different ways.

Just-in-time supply chains criss-cross Ireland, the UK and Europe; governments, agencies, businesses and individuals are trying to figure out how it might affect them.

But this is first and foremost a drama of high politics. In recent days, its locus has been in Westminster. With tonight’s vote, that will expand to include Brussels - as Mrs May inevitably seeks concessions on the withdrawal agreement to sell to parliament - and also Dublin.

It's time for Ireland to "hold its nerve", said the Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney yesterday. Hold our nerve in the face of what, The Irish Times asked the Taoiseach yesterday at the Fine Gael event. He didn't answer. It will be a jumpy, bumpy few weeks ahead.

Here's Denis Staunton's analysis from Westminster.

Cliff Taylor looks ahead to the consequences for Ireland.

Derek Scally reports from Berlin, while Simon Carswell writes on the letters exchanged yesterday between Jean-Claude Juncker and Mrs May.

Elsewhere, Sammy Wilson is not for turning.

Best reads

Fintan on Britain's day of non-destiny.

Artists on coping with low pay.

The Independents want to cap the property tax.

Playwright Jimmy Murphy wonders why the Abbey has failed to commission new Irish drama.

Playbook

Cabinet meets this morning, and the Dáil returns after the Christmas break later in the day, when the Taoiseach will face his first Leaders’ Questions of the year.

There also the order of business for the week, the less combative but more informative pre-submitted Taoiseach’s questions and oral PQs to Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy.

There were reports over Christmas that the bromance between Murphy and the Taoiseach had cooled. Nonsense, say some insiders. Others aren’t so sure. One reckons that things haven’t been the same between them since Murphy turned down the invite to the Kylie Minogue gigs.

The Seanad doesn’t return until next week.

There's a small number of committee meetings. Full details of the Oireachtas business are here: www.oireachtas.ie.

But all eyes will be on Westminster. One phase of Brexit ends; another begins. The endgame nears. The UK's choice - what kind of Brexit, if any - will not go away. It must make it. You can follow it all on irishtimes.com.

That’s it for this morning. Remember, it is the feast day of St Ita, whose miracles included reuniting the head and body of a man who had suffered decapitation. The British prime minister may need a similar manoeuvre this evening. Wrap up out there - according to Met Éireann, winter is coming. And whatever you do, have an utterly, completely, fruity day.