Under the ennui that hung over Leinster House this week like a gloopy pea-souper fog, some carried their pessimism heavier than others.
Little business was done at Cabinet and, on the floor of the Dáil, the Government lost two votes to shrugs of indifference.
Yet a special type of gloom followed a few, who walked about much like cartoon characters with a grey rain cloud over their heads while all about was dry: those in Fine Gael who wish Enda Kenny gone, but cannot see how it will happen.
The Taoiseach’s statement later in the week that perhaps, sometime in the future, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin could be in coalition caused controversy but few TDs expect a leadership change this side of Easter.
Poor polls could change that, but for now Kenny is safe, and can reasonably expect to see through another budget.
“People are so demoralised,” said one anti-Kenny deputy. “I can’t see the light at the end of the tunnel, just a slump in the polls.”
Another bemoaned the flat atmosphere of the weekly parliamentary party meeting, as if Fine Gael did not want to shake itself to life.
Those rebel backbenchers who asked Kenny to stand aside last year believe they have played their hands. They maintain it is now up to the aspirant leaders – Leo Varadkar, Simon Coveney, Frances Fitzgerald, Paschal Donohoe and perhaps Simon Harris – to call time on the Taoiseach.
Forerunner
One candidate in particular is trying the patience of some of the disgruntled: Varadkar, the long-time frontrunner.
Only months ago, one Fine Gael backbencher said that if he could pick any politician to be at his side as he canvassed a local shopping centre on the final weekend of an election campaign, it would be Varadkar.
For that TD, the shine is coming off his champion – although he still says Varadkar is ahead of Coveney, his nearest rival.
“He has the support, but times move on. At this stage, I’d be Leo but it wouldn’t take an awful lot to swing me. I wouldn’t be as enthusiastic as I would have been, the more I see of his mediocrity.”
Another TD said that, particularly in light of Kenny’s comments on Sinn Féin, the onus is on Varadkar to do something.
“Leo has some ruminating to do now,” the deputy said. “Leo is going to have to make his mind up quick.”
Yet another says that Fine Gael members, in particular, will not take kindly to an excess of ambition.
“The longer you show naked aggression for something, it could backfire on you. You can campaign for something too much, but is the shine coming off Leo in a general sense? I don’t think so. He is right of centre but comes across as more open, socially liberal. He defies stereotypes. That is his greatest asset.”
Varadkar has heard the warnings. Some of these TDs have made their views known to him and supporters of the Minster for Social Protection know that every vote counts in a leadership contest.
Alienating some could be costly. Or, as a Varadkar supporter, put it: “Anything less than a majority is the same as zero.”
Varadkar and Coveney are the frontrunners but another risk of the contest not coming for months or years is that other competitors could peel votes from them.
“Leo is ahead now but will he be by the end?” asked one member of the Cabinet. “At the moment it is a two-horse race but the longer it goes on, the field could become more crowded.”
Changing opinions
This view of Varadkar is not widely shared, but it could be a harbinger of changing opinions as time progresses. Other TDs point to a recent opinion poll which showed Fine Gael support would jump to 36 per cent if Varadkar is leader.
“His current poll numbers – which are brilliant and the best we have – are neither the floor nor the ceiling,” said one Dublin TD. “I think everybody understands it’s a complex dynamic: timing is always tricky, and there are plenty of issues that are beyond just our own party’s fortunes.”
Another said the responsibility to instigate a change of leadership lies with Coveney, too.
“Leo can’t go on his own. Everyone knows that. The problem here is Simon. The two of them will have to go together. Leo will move in the summer, or someone will on his behalf. Simon can’t stand back and say: ‘He [Kenny] is the leader, he’s the leader’ and watch the party go down the tubes.”
It is unlikely either will move, however. Coveney is seen as the favourite of the Kenny camp and will want their support in a leadership contest.
Varadkar does not want to be seen as disloyal either, mindful that it will not play well for the Fine Gael membership.
Yet he has hinted at the argument he will make for his candidacy on numerous occasions in recent months, saying Fine Gael needs to broaden its appeal.
He has not spelled out what the means for fear that it would be seen as undermining and moving on Kenny.
The danger is that if he waits too long to make his case, others could be more persuasive with their own pitches for leadership.
