There was an element of good news for everybody, except Fianna Fáil, in the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll which saw the main Opposition party sliding down the ratings since its creditable performance in the local elections in May.
With the next general election now looming over the horizon Micheál Martin is finding out the hard way that being leader of the Opposition is by far the toughest job in Irish politics.
He faced an enormous challenge from his very first day as leader, taking over the party on the eve of the 2011 general election when it was obvious to all, including himself, that Fianna Fáil was in for a savage beating.
The election result was as bad as it could possibly be and Martin was left to face into the 31st Dáil leading a decimated party whose future existence many even doubted.
Given the scale of the challenge Martin did extremely well to bring the party back to a point last May where it surprised everybody by regaining its position as the biggest party in local government. The European elections were a different story, but in terms of long-term rebuilding the locals appeared more significant.
The real worry now, though, is that instead of kicking on and building momentum from that achievement Fianna Fáil has slid backwards while its Opposition rival, Sinn Féin, has continued to gain ground and is now level with Fine Gael as the biggest party in the State.
Fianna Fáil TDs were left scratching their heads wondering how they managed to lose support since the summer. The answer probably lies in the confused strategy the party has adopted in not knowing whether to provide full- blooded opposition to the Government or claim responsibility for initiating the policies that have underpinned the national economic recovery.
The result is that fine Gael and even Labour to some extent have ownership of the recovery story, even if that includes responsibilities for the tough decisions that were required, while Sinn Féin leads the “anti-austerity” charge denouncing in trenchant terms every decision taken by the Government.
Fianna Fáil is left in the middle struggling to attack the Government for “austerity” one day while on the next claiming credit for once – and probably still – unpopular policies that have actually paid off.
In the Dáil Martin is in the same position attempting to compete with Sinn Féin that Enda Kenny was in before 2011 when Eamon Gilmore won all the accolades for being more effective in denouncing Fianna Fáil. The result was that less than a year before the last election Labour passed out Fine Gael in the polls.
Martin can take some consolation from the fact that the closer it came to deciding who should actually run the country the standing of the Opposition parties changed and Fine Gael regained a significant lead over Labour.
Fianna Fáil has serious obstacles to overcome if it wants to convince a significant proportion of the electorate that it is an alternative party of government. The key one is to overcome the image of the disgraced party that inflated a disastrous boom but instead present itself as the party that had the ability to take the courageous decisions required to rescue a country in distress.
Competing with Sinn Féin in the politics of indignation and outrage is only playing into the hands of its rivals on both sides of the Dáil. Leo Varadkar has already articulated the view that the next election will be a fight between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin and in the short term that could suit both parties although the implications of that are that Sinn Féin will end up in Government sooner rather than later.
Fianna Fáil’s challenge is to avoid being squeezed between the two and to convince people that, unlike Sinn Féin, it knows what being a party of government is all about, despite the mistakes it made in the past.
Martin will be hoping desperately for a byelection win today in Roscommon to boost morale and, more importantly, demonstrate that when it comes to real elections the party is still relevant.
The victory of the Fianna Fáil-backed Gerard Craughwell in the Seanad byelection yesterday was welcome news but, apart from causing potential Government headaches in tight Seanad votes, the long-term benefit to the main Opposition party will be minimal. A victory in Roscommon is far more important and that is why Martin has spent so much time in the constituency over the past few weeks.
While Sinn Féin is obviously delighted to have drawn level with Fine Gael in the poll, the wiser heads in the party know that translating poll results into votes poses a real difficulty for the party.
On the eve of the local and European elections when the polls were putting the party on 20 per cent plus Sinn Féin sent a text message to journalists cautioning: “SF has nowhere near the capacity of bigger parties. We therefore can’t fully capitalise on the support we are getting.” The message added that if the party had the capacity it would have stood more candidates.
In the event the party did very well winning three European Parliament seats and trebling its number of councillors, but it did not get the level of support indicated in the polls.
It is worth pointing out that this is not the first Irish Times poll to put Sinn Féin on 24 per cent. The party first achieved this figure over two years ago back in May, 2012, and in September of last year it was on 23 per cent.
On both of those occasions Sinn Féin was ahead of Fianna Fáil. The difference is that this time it has also drawn level with Fine Gael. Retaining that standing in the year-long run in to the election is the challenge now facing the party.