Fine Gael now leads Fianna Fáil for the first time since the general election last year according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll. There has also been a sharp increase in satisfaction with the Government since the last survey in February.
The poll was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week among a representative sample of 1,200 voters aged 18 and over in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 per cent.
When people were asked who they would vote for in a general election, party support, when undecided voters were excluded, was: Fine Gael, 30 per cent (up two points compared with the result of the February poll); Fianna Fáil, 27 per cent (down two); Labour, 5 per cent (up one); Sinn Féin, 20 per cent (down one) and Independents/Others, 18 per cent (no change).
The core vote for the parties, before undecideds were excluded, compared with the last Irish Times poll in February, was: Fine Gael, 25 per cent (up four); Fianna Fáil, 22 per cent (down one); Labour, 4 per cent (up one); Sinn Féin, 17 per cent (down one); Independents/Others, 15 per cent (no change); and undecided voters, 17 per cent (down three).
Among the smaller parties, the Greens are on 2 per cent, Solidarity-People before Profit are on 3 per cent, the Social Democrats are on 1 per cent, Independents for Change are on 2 per cent, the Independent Alliance are on 2 per cent, others groups and parties are on 2 per cent and non-party independents are on 5 per cent.
All the movements in party support are minimal, with almost all within the margin of error. However, allied to the increase in satisfaction with the Government and a surge in the outgoing Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s personal rating, the poll findings offer a boost to Fine Gael as the party prepares to choose its next leader.
Mr Kenny sees his personal satisfaction rating improve from 31 per cent to 43 per cent – the highest rating he has achieved in almost six years.
The Government’s rating also improves, with 37 per cent of voters saying they are satisfied with it, while 55 per cent say they are dissatisfied.
There are small improvements in the satisfaction rating for the other party leaders. Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin sees his rating improve by two points since February to 39 per cent, while Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams also sees his rating improve by two points to 31. Satisfaction with the Labour leader Brendan Howlin rises by four points to 22 per cent.
