Politics

Fragile Government unlikely to rush into abortion referendum

Debate to continue as Kenny believes motion to repeal Eighth Amendment would not pass

Ruth Coppinger speaking in the Dáil as six TDs from the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit group wore sweaters with the Repeal slogan in reference to the ongoing abortion debate. Photograph: Oireachtas TV/PA Wire
Ruth Coppinger speaking in the Dáil as six TDs from the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit group wore sweaters with the Repeal slogan in reference to the ongoing abortion debate. Photograph: Oireachtas TV/PA Wire
Pat Leahy's picture
Pat Leahy
Wed Sept 28 2016 - 01:00

Wearing black and white "Repeal" T-shirts, proclaiming their support for the removal of the constitutional ban on abortion, Ruth Coppinger and her colleagues in the Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit group used the first day of the Dáil term to demand a referendum to simply delete the Eighth Amendment.

“When people talk about ‘repeal’ and wear T-shirts bearing the word, as they did on Saturday, they mean ‘revoke’ or ‘make null and void’. They do not mean ‘replace’ or ‘amend’,” Coppinger told the Taoiseach Enda Kenny. “I fully respect the view of the deputy,” the Taoiseach replied, “but it is not a black and white situation. The T-shirts may be black and have white writing on them but this is about people and people have different views.”

Those campaigning to repeal the Eighth Amendment – which as article 40.3.3 of the Constitution underpins Ireland’s strict anti-abortion laws – says that it is growing in size and reach across the country.

Though anti-abortion activists insist that the push for a referendum has little support on the ground, political momentum for a referendum is gathering.

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Sources on both sides of the debate know that a referendum is likely and will be campaigning until it arrives.

But senior political sources note that it will be some time before that point is reached.

Discussions

The citizens’ assembly, which will first consider a possible referendum on the Eighth Amendment, meets in Dublin Castle for the first time on October 15th.

Government sources do not expect it to return with its recommendations until towards the end of the first half of 2017.

With the summer recess, that means that a specially constituted all-party Oireachtas committee may not begin its deliberations on the Eighth Amendment until this time next year.

If those discussions take place over a few months, it is likely to be 2018 before the Government brings proposals to the Dáil which may – or may not – entail a referendum. Any Bill to change the Constitution must first be passed by the Dáil and Seanad before referendum can take place.

Given the precarious nature of the minority Government thus far, and the probability of a leadership change in Fine Gael in the medium-term future, it is entirely possible that the present Dáil will not deal with the abortion question at all.

Debate

Yesterday, Coppinger told the House there was no need for Constitutional or legislative restrictions on any proposal to delete the Eighth Amendment.

“We can win a repeal of the Eighth Amendment without any further restriction, which is what I fear is being cooked up – in the form of restrictive legislation being put into the Constitution or an amendment to the Eighth Amendment,” she told the Taoiseach.

Many people in Leinster House, in all parties and none, disagree.

It is certainly the view of the Taoiseach, and most of his Ministers, that a simple repeal proposition would be defeated if held now.

But it will not be held now.

The debate may be a longer one than many people now realise.