Germany named as possible post-Brexit ally for Ireland

Germany will probably be one of Ireland's allies in helping to secure as close as possible a relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union after Brexit, according to a confidential Government memo.

The memo, seen by The Irish Times, was circulated to Ministers and officials in the past fortnight, and is titled: "Ireland post Brexit interests in the EU: alliances and sectoral analysis".

It was discussed at a meeting of the Cabinet sub-committee on Brexit last week, according to sources. It is understood that Ministers said no other member state in the EU, apart from Britain itself, was discussing Brexit as much as Ireland.

“It will be important to identify those member states that, like Ireland, are likely to favour a future status for the UK as close as possible to the current arrangements, and those member states which might not be unduly concerned if a hard Brexit were to happen,” the memo states.

"In the former camp are probably the Nordic and Baltic countries, the Netherlands, Poland, Hungary, Malta, Cyprus and probably Germany. In the latter camp are France, most of the remaining Mediterranean countries, Austria and probably Slovakia. "

No EU ‘moon shot’

It also says that, in the short term, Ireland is “very much in the mainstream in arguing that the crisis of faith in the union needs to be addressed through pragmatic and concrete responses to practical problems, instead of great treaty-based leaps forward”.

This tallies with recent comments from Taoiseach Enda Kenny, who last week told the Irish Times Brexit summit this was not the time for "some grand new chapter of EU integration, or some European Union 'moon shot'".

The memo also says that, even if Britain stayed in the EU, Ireland would have to assess its position in the union.

“Optimising Ireland’s overall positioning is a major and continuing challenge for us, as the EU centre of gravity has shifted eastwards following the 2004 and 2007 enlargements and as the outward-looking, competitive trade and investment-friendly policies which we have espoused have become more contentious within the EU, not least because of a global backlash in some member states about globalisation,” it says.

“In the medium to longer term, especially if the union overcomes its present crises, it is likely that further integration – in some cases maybe among smaller groups – will be on the agenda including in the areas of migration, counter terrorism, security and defence and EMU (European monetary union).

“It will be necessary for us to reflect not just on our approaches on individual policy areas but on how to address the totality of issues in a way acceptable to the Irish public and credible to partners.”

‘Hostage taking’

The memo also highlights the importance of the European Commission and European Parliament in the Brexit process. The commission, the EU's executive arm, is described as a "crucial player" and the role of the parliament, which must give its consent to any Brexit deal, is also highlighted.

Another concern is the potential for other member states to use Brexit negotiations to further their own policy aims within the EU or to ensure that the process does not set precedents that could be detrimental to their own interests in future. This is called “hostage taking”.

"A shorter-term challenge will be how to address and manage issues which other member states may seek to link to the Brexit negotiations, ie 'hostage taking'. For example, Poland is likely to actively play the budgetary card, and Spain may take a tough line on Gibraltar and on avoiding any possible precedents to be followed by its regions. In developing our alliances, we will therefore need to ensure that such 'hostage taking' does not encroach on our vital national interests, including North-South issues, in the Brexit context."

“Irrespective of the policy area, Ireland will need to significantly develop its current level of engagement with other member states, particularly the like- minded and potentially like-minded on (a) Brexit; and (b) a post-Brexit EU, including through regular bilateral contact at both political and official level and with a greater and more strategic use of joint actions, lobbying and campaigning with other partners, including at ministerial level.”