Group of TDs budgeting for two general elections in 2016

Word reaches us that a crafty cohort of TDs are now budgeting for two general elections in 2016.

Before we arrive at the iconic year, the rapidly-approaching merry month of May will be a busy one in politics in 2015, with one hotly-contested byelection in Carlow/Kilkenny and a referendum on same-sex marriage.

And don't forget the referendum on reducing the age for presidential candidates from 35 to 21, although most everyone else seems content to disregard it, even the Labour Party. Anyhow, looking ahead to next year, one Minister - speaking on the basis of anonymity - told me about some canny TDs financial plans for 2016.

“A number of deputies have said they are actually budgeting for two elections in 2016, before a stable government could be elected,” the Minister said.

“Opposition and Government TDs are looking at how to fund two general elections.”

The temptation for TDs is always to “spend, spend, spend” (within Sipo limits of course) in order to give themselves the best possible chance of getting elected.

But the current thinking among some deputies is that they would be foolish to blow the budget on one general election, leaving nothing in the tank in the event of another national poll.

Politicians and parties may have borrowed money to fund electoral campaigns in the past on the understanding that they had some five years to pay it all back.

“But”, our ministerial source contends, “if you end up with two elections in one year you may sell party headquarters!”

So while some Government TDs believe the Coalition has managed to break the unfortunate habit of inflicting wounds on itself, others are obviously feeling just that little bit more cautious.

What is prompting this unprecedented advance financial planning is individual TDs’ analysis of the opinion polls and their assessment of the reliability of various statements by parties about coalition options.

It might be worth recalling what has been said to date:

* Fine Gael, in the form of Minister for Finance Michael Noonan, said he believed the Coalition can get re-elected with the support of "centre-right" Independents.

* Fianna Fáil leader Michael Martin has said his party will not coalesce with Fine Gael or Sinn Féin.

* Sinn Féin has insisted it will not go into a Government led by either Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil.

* Shane Ross’ Independents Alliance may support a minority government or negotiate for Cabinet positions, according to member Finian McGrath.

* Lucinda Creighton’s Renua has made no secret about its desire to be part of the next government.