After a torrid few weeks, there is some good news at last for Leo Varadkar this morning.
The last Irish Times/Ipsos opinion poll of the year has an early Christmas present for the Taoiseach and his party – a jump in support that establishes a significant lead over Fianna Fáil for the first time since the general election.
News of the poll makes our front page lead story this morning,
There's plenty of analysis inside the paper here and here - and here's ourleader on the poll.
What’s the takeaway?
The poll is a significant fillip to Fine Gael - and its leader, whose personal ratings are sky-high. Sure, all parties say they don’t pay attention to polls, but I’m afraid this is a lie. They are all obsessed by polls. Fine Gaelers will be feeling even more than usually pleased with themselves this morning.
The smarter ones will know that what’s important is not one poll, and who’s up and who’s down in any given month – it’s the longer and medium-term trend. The jump for Fine Gael is a big one for sure, but more important is the trend of steady Fine Gael gains over the last 18 months.
Big movements in one poll often revert to the mean in the following one. We’ll see. But the polls look pretty healthy for Fine Gael right now, that’s for sure.
What’s driving it? It’s hard to separate the poll from when it was taken – Monday and Tuesday, right when the Brexit row with the UK was at its height. My view is that Varadkar benefited from being seen to stand up for Irish interests.
If I’m right about this, it shows how incumbency in Government can be a massive political advantage; Governments can do things, the Opposition can just talk. The power of executive action is the most powerful political tool of all.
Brexit rolling on
The Taoiseach met Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte in Government Buildings last night, and inevitably there was talk of Brexit.
Earlier, he spoke to Theresa May by phone, though the official accounts of the call from either side suggested that there was little new ground broken. Tomorrow is regarded in Brussels as the deadline for the British to table acceptable offers on the Border if there is to be a breakthrough in time for next week’s summit of European leaders.
Forty-eight hours, Michel Barnier told EU ambassadors yesterday.
Senior officials in Dublin were phlegmatic yesterday, awaiting British proposals. The mood in Dublin remains: This is May's problem. If she wants to solve it, we're all ears – but it's her problem. Dublin might help, but it's not moving from the position on the Border.
This subject will take up most of the day behind closed doors. There are moves afoot to break the deadlock with concessions to the DUP and reassurance to Ireland. But it’s pretty darn late in the day, lads.
