Election campaigns often seem set in stone and choreographed to the last, but events have an awful habit of interfering.
A group of gunmen bursting into a Dublin hotel in broad daylight to carry out one of the most brazen killings in recent memory – and an apparent reprisal shooting last night – are undoubtedly such events.
A campaign that was to be all about the economy now heavily features justice and security matters.
The economy will still dominate but this week will be difficult for Sinn Féin. It is now under serious pressure on its policy of abolishing the non-jury Special Criminal Court.
On Friday, Thomas “Slab” Murphy – described as a “good republican” by Mary Lou McDonald and Gerry Adams – will be sentenced at the same Special Criminal Court for tax evasion.
It has long been assumed that questions on the IRA, security and the past have been factored in by Sinn Féin’s core support; that those who are going to vote for the party will not be deterred by political attacks on that front.
Core appeal
In recent times, however, Sinn Féin has worked hard to widen its appeal beyond its core, which party figures say is 16 or 17 per cent of voters.
Signing up to the Right2Change left-wing platform was the most obvious example, but the evidence that Sinn Féin was losing some of its transfer toxicity was already there.
It was picking up votes from other left candidates in byelections and local elections and hopes to do so again come count-day on February 27th.
Midway through the 31st Dáil, the end of austerity and the gradual economic recovery began to chip away at Sinn Féin’s support. But that was just one factor.
Where once Sinn Féin threatened to extend its appeal into the middle classes – when Mary Lou laughed on the Late Late couch – issues such as the Máiría Cahill controversy and the continued existence of the Provisional IRA put a ceiling on its development.
The latest questions will not damage its first preference vote but may scare away some tempted to give it a lower preference.
A vote no longer seems like an easy protest if doubts linger over the commitment of the party to the criminal justice system.
The Government will not escape scrutiny either and can expect further pressure over garda numbers and its decision to close garda stations.
Questions
“The shooting is coming up on the doors but more in a ‘isn’t it terrible?’ kind of way,” said one northside TD of the hotel murder.
“People are asking why the guards weren’t there.”
Sinn Féin yesterday tried to brush off criticism of its policy of abolishing the Special Criminal Court as “electioneering”, as if that was a dirty concept.
Of course its opponents will highlight issues as they arise.
But for the Government parties, it also works on another level: the potency of their warnings of a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin coalition, a prospect strenuously denied by Michéal Martin, will only be enhanced.
