Fianna Fáil is on course to lead the next government as Fine Gael and Labour support slips further with just over three months to go to the general election, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll.
Mr Ahern is set to return as Taoiseach despite a fall in satisfaction with the Government by 10 percentage points to 52 per cent. Fianna Fáil suffers a marginal drop in support by one point to 41 per cent. However, Fine Gael support has fallen three points to 21 per cent, well below what it would require to have a prospect of leading a government.
The bad news for the party is compounded by the poor showing of Mr Michael Noonan. Just 31 per cent of voters are satisfied with his performance as leader, with 37 per cent dissatisfied. Some 32 per cent have no opinion. This is a significantly worse showing that that of Mr John Bruton a year ago which led to his ousting as party leader.
Labour also suffers a fall of one percentage point to 11 per cent. The Labour leader, Mr Ruairí Quinn, has registered his lowest personal satisfaction rating since becoming party leader. Some 41 per cent say they are satisfied with his performance, 26 per cent dissatisfied and 33 per cent have no opinion.
Sinn Féin and Independents have made significant advances since last May, as support for the three largest parties has dropped.
The state of the parties is: Fianna Fáil 41 per cent, down one percentage point since the last Irish Times/MRBI poll published in May 2001; Fine Gael 21 per cent, down three points; Labour 11 per cent, down one point; Sinn Féin 8 per cent, up three points; Green Party 5 per cent, unchanged; Progressive Democrats 3 per cent, unchanged; and Others 11 per cent, up two points.
These findings are based on a party weighting system devised to take account of lower voter turnout in recent elections.
The core support for the parties is: Fianna Fáil 37 per cent, down three points; Fine Gael 15 per cent, down three points; Labour 7 per cent, down one point; Sinn Féin 6 per cent, up two points; Green Party 4 per cent, unchanged; Progressive Democrats 2 per cent, unchanged; Others 9 per cent, up three points. Some 20 per cent were undecided or said they would not vote.
The poll was conducted among a national quota sample of 1,000 electors at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the State on Monday and Tuesday last. It took place amid the controversy over Fine Gael's offer to compensate Eircom shareholders and as the PDs announced the candidacy first of Mr Tom Parlon and then of the Attorney General, Mr Michael McDowell.
Offered a range of Coalition options, 57 per cent of those expressing an opinion said they would prefer a Government led by Fianna Fáil. Just 31 per cent went for one led by Fine Gael, while 47 per cent opted for a Coalition involving the Labour Party.
Mr Ahern's personal satisfaction rating is at 68 per cent, a rise of four percentage points since May 2001. Some 25 per cent say they are dissatisfied with his performance, with 8 per cent having no opinion.
The Tánaiste, Ms Harney's personal satisfaction rating is 54 per cent, a five-point drop on last May's figure.
Some 34 per cent say they are dissatisfied with her performance, a rise of seven points since last May, and 12 per cent express no opinion.
The disimprovement in her rating follows the controversy over her use of an Air Corps plane to fly to open a friend's off-licence in Co Leitrim.
The Sinn Féin leader, Mr Gerry Adams, receives a 56 per cent satisfaction rating. Some 21 per cent expressed dissatisfaction with his leadership of Sinn Féin, with 24 per cent expressing no opinion.
The new Green Party leader, Mr Trevor Sargent, has a personal satisfaction rating of 35 per cent. Asked about their preferred coalition option after the next election, the largest number, 35 per cent, went for the current Fianna Fáil/PD arrangement.
A Fianna Fáil/Labour combination was chosen by 14 per cent; Fine Gael/Labour by 14 per cent; Fine Gael/Labour/Green Party by 12 per cent; and none of these by 10 per cent. Some 15 per cent said they were undecided on the matter.
- Asked about the imminent publication of the poll last night, the Taoiseach said: "The only one I'm worried about is the one next May."