PRIME MINISTER Vladimir Putin is heading for a massive victory in the first round of the Russian presidential elections on March 4th, according to the latest poll published by the reliable Levada Centre in Moscow.
Voters were asked who they would vote for if the elections were to be held now, and 66 per cent of respondents replied that they would vote for Mr Putin. This margin of victory would mean a second round would not be held.
The communist candidate, Gennady Zyuganov, was way behind in second place on 15 per cent, with the extreme right-winger Vladimir Zhirinovsky on 8 per cent, the billionaire independent Mikhail Prokhorov on 6 per cent, and Sergei Mironov of the Social Democratic “A Just Russia” party last on 5 per cent.
The poll was taken between February 17th and 20th from a sample of 1,600 people of voting age in 130 locations within 45 Russian regions. Levada has put the margin of error at 3.4 per cent.
Mr Putin’s campaign has touched an atavistic nerve amongst Russians, who have throughout the country’s history, looked westward with a degree of suspicion. Invaders from Lithuania and Poland were repelled in the distant past.
The 200th anniversary of Napoleon’s defeat at Borodino outside Moscow is being celebrated this year and within living memory Hitler’s forces were defeated by Soviet armies at Moscow, Stalingrad, Kursk and finally in Berlin.
There is no military threat to Russia today but many Russians feel they are subject to political pressure, particularly from the United States which became the world’s lone superpower after the fall of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991. The Orange Revolution which overturned the results of Ukraine’s presidential election in 2004 and the Rose Revolution that ousted former Soviet foreign minister Eduard Shevardnadze and brought the US educated Mikheil Saakashvili to power in Georgia in 2003 have been seen here as attempts by the US to dislodge those two countries from Russia’s sphere of interest.
Today’s demonstrators in Russia use white ribbons and balloons to identify themselves, just as the Ukrainians used orange. Mr Putin’s supporters have been quick to suggest that the US is now operating similar tactics in Russia. In fact, the Putin campaign has consistently referred to the street demonstrators as Orangists, despite their choice of white as their identifying colour.
The message to voters has been that the demonstrators, as well as election observers from the local Golos (Voice) Organisation are being paid by the United States to undermine Russian society.
These tactics have worked to the extent that Mr Putin is now more certain than ever to win the election. But it is significant that when Russians talk of “the opposition” they are not referring to the four candidates who oppose Mr Putin on the ballot paper. Rather, the term is reserved for those who oppose him on the streets of Moscow.
This is hardly surprising since all four candidates are seen in one way or other to have done direct or indirect deals with the authorities.
The communists appear to be happy to keep second place and won’t rock the boat, Mr Zhirinovsky’s party has never voted against the government in parliament, while Mr Prokhorov and Mr Mironov were until fairly recently part of Mr Putin’s political camp. The next move by “the opposition” will be to organise a unique demonstration at the weekend in which they will surround central Moscow by holding hands along the Sadovoye Koltso, the city’s main ring road.
They estimate that it will take more than 30,000 people to do so. Applications have also been made to hold at least three protest meetings in Moscow in the week following the presidential poll.