Poll suggests dramatic rise by SNP as Labour slips

Scotland's "general election" finally came alive last night courtesy of an apparently dramatic comeback by the Scottish National…

Scotland's "general election" finally came alive last night courtesy of an apparently dramatic comeback by the Scottish National Party.

On the eve of Mr Tony Blair's return to the campaign trail here today, Labour Party chiefs shrugged off a System Three poll suggesting the party's lead has been virtually halved over the past week.

But with just six days of campaigning before Thursday's election for the Scottish parliament, the SNP was cock-a-hoop with its leader, Mr Alex Salmond, being portrayed as "the comeback kid of Scottish politics."

Last week's System Three poll for the Glasgow Herald found support for the SNP "in freefall", with Labour within a whisker of commanding an overall majority in Holyrood.

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However, according to yesterday's findings Labour's lead has fallen from 20 to 11 points, which would give the party 55 seats in the new 129-member parliament, as opposed to 48 for the SNP, 15 for the Liberal Democrats and 11 for the Conservatives.

Labour in particular will be hoping this proves to be a rogue poll, and party strategists will eagerly await the findings of other key surveys this weekend.

However, one explanation offered for an apparently incredible turnaround is that anti-Labour opinion may be beginning to coalesce around the nationalists, in a conscious attempt by voters to prevent the new parliament becoming yet another Labour-dominated authority.

Labour, in fact, is down only 2 or 3 per cent on last week's poll.

But the number of undecideds is also down, from 15 per cent to 10 per cent. And according to yesterday's findings Labour's lead in the "second vote" element of the new system, to elect additional SMPs from regional lists, has been slashed from 13 to just three points.

System Three also found that exactly half the voters want a formal coalition to run the new parliament, with Conservatives most in favour and Labour supporters least keen.

While the smart money remains on a Labour-Liberal Democrats partnership, yesterday's projected share of seats would put the SNP-Liberal Democrats within two seats of the necessary requirement to form an administration.

While the Scottish Greens and the Scottish Socialist Party appear to be squeezed in the battle for "second seats", yesterday's poll suggested independent support running at 7 per cent in Central Region. This would offer hope for Mr Dennis Canavan MP, who failed to be selected by Labour, even if he fails to hold his Falkirk West seat.

The Chancellor, Mr Gordon Brown, made light of the latest poll findings. "We don't talk about opinion polls, as you know," he declared, insisting the party was taking nothing for granted and would continue to "press the issues."

The Lib Dems, increasingly targeting those "second" votes, insisted the poll did not reflect their true support, while the Scottish Tory leader, Mr David McLetchie, took solace in the old truism that "the only poll that counts" is next Thursday's.

Labour chiefs will be hoping Mr Blair's presence here today will provide the party with a fresh surge as the campaign enters its final stages.

However, the media spotlight will remain on the SNP as the party prepares to publish its long-awaited paper on the economics of independence.

As Scottish Tories continued their struggle yesterday, Mr William Hague, the party leader, was battling to restore his authority and credibility after a MORI poll found further slippage in his support within the party.

Nervously eyeing next Thursday's crucial council elections in England, as well as those in Scotland and Wales, Mr Hague had sought to end the growing party dispute over its stance on the public services and market forces with a pledge of loyalty to Baroness Thatcher and her inheritance.

However, speculation about Mr Hague's long-term future as leader was fuelled by the MORI poll showing Conservative support back down to 25 per cent, with his personal approval rating among Tory supporters (measuring those satisfied less those dissatisfied with his performance) having fallen from minus 26 to minus 31 points.