Post-ceasefire poll turns into a referendum on the future

"Spain will lose the Basque Country, like it lost Cuba," the leader of the political wing of ETA, Mr Arnaldo Otegi, declared …

"Spain will lose the Basque Country, like it lost Cuba," the leader of the political wing of ETA, Mr Arnaldo Otegi, declared on Thursday. Last night, in the final rally of his party's campaign for tomorrow's Basque elections, he stressed that such a change could come about democratically.

The most remarkable thing about his closing speech in Bilbao was that it contained only a single reference to ETA, whose decision to call a ceasefire last month has coloured every party's approach to the election.

Their arguments have all been more appropriate to a referendum on the future of the Basque Country than to a poll to decide the policies which should be implemented by the next Basque parliament.

The radical nationalists, taking a leaf out of Sinn Fein's book, have certainly set the agenda, and left the balaclavas in the back room.

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No dramatic changes in the parliamentary representation of the parties are likely in this election. The real question is which parties will coalesce to govern. There are no pre-electoral pacts.

The Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) has been the best supported in the last five Basque elections. It has presided over every Basque government since 1981, usually in coalition with the slightly more radical nationalists of Basque Solidarity (EA), and the mostly anti-nationalist Socialist Party (PSOE).

Polls suggest the PNV will retain its 22 seats in the 75-seat parliament. The conservative Partido Popular, currently in power in Madrid, has never held a Basque cabinet seat but may well come second, with perhaps 15 seats.

Its rival for this position is ETA's political wing, Herri Batasuna, now rebaptised as Euskal Herritoak (EH). This party is likely to benefit most from the ceasefire, rather as Sinn Fein did in Northern Ireland.

The PSOE, which pulled out of the last Basque government in opposition to its increasingly nationalist tone, is also a candidate for second position. The former communists of the United Left, which is closer to the nationalist parties, will probably hold its six seats.

The peace process has polarised the campaign, with the nationalists generally moderating their rhetoric, lest the spectre of Basque independence should bring out a dormant "pro-Spanish" vote for the PP and PSOE, while both these parties have tended to radicalise their language, playing on fears of Basque nationalism, although the PP has made some accommodating gestures.

The most likely outcome is a government formed by the two more moderate nationalist parties, with communist participation, and conditional support from Mr Otegi's radicals in EH. In this scenario the ETA ceasefire would probably hold and the peace process advance.

The major upset would be if the PP and PSOE bucked the polls and won a joint majority. This would offer the prospect of the first non-nationalist government in the Basque Country at the very moment when nationalist feeling, and nationalist unity, are stronger than ever.

It is hard to imagine a positive ETA response to that scenario.