Iraq: Concern is mounting that the country's next prime minister could be as divisive a figure as his predecessor, writes Michael Jansen in Amman, Jordan.
Iraq's prime minister-designate, Jawal al-Maliki, began consultations yesterday with the aim of forming a new government within the designated time-limit of one month.
He was nominated by the Shia bloc on Friday and formally handed the mandate on Saturday by president Jalal Talabani, the Kurdish leader who was asked by parliament to remain in his post.
Tareq al-Hashemi, head of the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party, and Adel Abdel Mahdi of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) were named vice-presidents. Muhammad Mashhadani, a Sunni fundamentalist, was chosen as speaker of the assembly and Khaled Attiya, a Shia, and Aref Tayfour, a Kurd, are his deputies.
As soon as former premier Ibrahim Jaafari decided to stand down last week, the process of filling these posts went smoothly and quickly because they had been agreed by the Shia and Kurdish blocs after some consultation with the Sunni fundamentalist faction. The secularists, led by former premier Ayad Allawi and Salih al-Mutlaq are out of the loop.
Adherence to the sectarian model adopted by the US occupation administration in 2003 indicates that communalism is becoming ever more deeply entrenched, making it unlikely that a national unity government will be established.
Cabinet posts are expected to be vigorously contested by the main blocs, the Shias, Sunnis and Kurds. The senior ministries of oil, finance, interior, defence, and foreign affairs are considered major prizes for faction leaders.
Therefore, these key portfolios are certain to be awarded to politicians rather than technocrats with the expertise to manage the work of the ministries.
The Iraqi press expressed strong reservations about Mr Maliki, pointing out that as a fundamentalist Shia, he is unlikely to shed his sectarian background and unite the country solidly behind the government.
He was born Nuri Kamil al-Ali in 1950 at Hindiya, a town located between Hilla and Kerbala. He joined Dawa, the Shia revolutionary party, in 1968 and adopted the nom de guerre Jawad al-Maliki. He took his first university degree at Kulliya Ursul al-Din, the Tenets of Religion College, in Baghdad and his master's degree in Arabic literature.
He served in the education department before fleeing Iraq in 1980. He initially went to Iran, but eventually settled in Syria, where he was head of Dawa's political office. He returned to Iraq in 2003 and became a Dawa spokesman. He was a member of the body purging the administration and armed forces of Baath party members, the constitutional commission, and the national security council.
Elected by a narrow majority of the 275-member assembly, he can count on the backing of only the United Iraqi Alliance, the coalition of Shia religious parties which has 130 seats.
This means he will have to win the backing of another six deputies to secure the majority required to confirm his cabinet and to pass legislation.
Mr Maliki may also find it difficult to conciliate assembly factions. He is not an experienced politician and he brings to the post a certain amount of "baggage" which could be a hindrance.
While his opposition to the 2003 US invasion could stand him in good stead with Sunnis, secularists and followers of the radical Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, this is a sensitive issue with Shia figures who supported US military action and depend on US backing. Secularists are certain to object to his strong advocacy of Islamic Sharia law and to insist that provisions in the constitution, which enshrine the supremacy of Sharia, should be changed.
The Kurdish bloc and SCIRI could be alienated by his oppo- sition to the formation of multi-province Kurdish and Shia regions in the north and south.
Arabs and Turkomen dwelling in Kirkuk will contest his pledge to permit the settlement of Kurds in the city, thereby tipping the demographic balance in their favour to justify its annexation by the Kurdish region.
Finally, Iraqis who held office during the former regime are highly critical of Mr Maliki because he has taken a very strong stand on de-Baathification. Analysts express concerns that he could become as divisive a figure as Dr Jaafari.