President almost certain runner for second term

Renagh Holohan , who accompanied Mrs McAleese on her recent tour of South America, believes she will nominate herself come the…

Renagh Holohan, who accompanied Mrs McAleese on her recent tour of South America, believes she will nominate herself come the summer.

On the day before she returned home last week President McAleese was asked if she will seek re-election in the autumn. Her reply was the same as it has been when the question arose before - she has not yet decided.

Each time the date for an announcement gets put back. Now it is to be after the June European and local elections. Before this it was after Christmas 2003, then spring, now it's summer.

It is virtually certain that she is running again. Would she leave Fianna Fáil in the lurch and without a candidate, at the last minute? Hardly likely considering the support she got in 1997.

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Indeed, one senior Fianna Fáil figure confided this week that "the deal is done" and Mrs McAleese will most likely use her prerogative as a sitting President and nominate herself. If she takes this route Fine Gael will not oppose her. A Labour candidate, Michael D Higgins has expressed an interest, an agreed candidate from the smaller parties in the Dáil and possibly some independents may stand, thus ensuring an election.

Practically everyone, supporters and opposition alike, believe Mrs McAleese is unbeatable. It was not so last time.

She was a controversial candidate who got the Fianna Fáil nomination because their front-runner Albert Reynolds was not acceptable to the Progressive Democrats, and because the PD leadership requested the party to back her.

Now the question is, will there be an election at all in October as her seven-year term draws to a close, or will she be returned unopposed as President Patrick Hillery was in 1983? And if there is an election, what form will the campaign take?

No sitting President since Eamonn de Valera in 1966 has fought a campaign.

While he was an icon to some and despised by others, he was old and nearly blind and too long at the top, yet 'Dev' made it back to the Park, albeit beating Fine Gael's Tom O'Higgins by only half of one per cent.

Should Mary McAleese nominate herself for President, Fianna Fáil and the PDs will not only back her but campaign for her as well. Indeed it could be said that the longer she delays an announcement, the longer Mrs McAleese can campaign as President and receive all the attendant publicity that the job brings.

Had she already declared, last month's RTÉ television programme From Ardoyne to the Áras; Inside the McAleese Presidency would hardly have been possible without the national station giving similar coverage to her opponents.

So Mrs McAleese is campaigning on the job and will continue to do so. It gives her a decided advantage. It is anticipated however that she will have to participate in some of the set-piece television debates that have become a feature of all Presidential contests.

Meanwhile she will continue to criss-cross the country, making speeches, shaking hands, hugging the vulnerable and generally going down a treat.

Last month in Argentina, Chile and Brazil she was as engaged and as enthusiastic in her job as she was on her first major state visit, to Canada, in 1998. She met all three presidents, she chatted away and delivered her speeches in excellent Spanish and she charmed the Irish missionaries and emigrants with the warmth of her interest.

It could be said the campaign is already on. As for promotional costs, including leaflets, posters and advertising, no doubt the coalition parties will make a contribution, and a media blitz is hardly necessary as her profile is so high. She will be campaigning from a position of strength with the advantages of office behind her.

President Mary Robinson broke the mould and opened up the presidency in many areas. She travelled the globe, meeting the Irish and the local powerful, and she brought our millions of emigrants centre-stage. Mary McAleese has continued this role, and with her husband Martin, established links with and between the opponents in the North.

A second term would see more of what they call "building bridges" and a greater role for Dr McAleese, probably in the developing world where he has on several occasions volunteered his services as a dentist. Also, as has been anticipated for years in the improving political and paramilitary situation, a state visit to Ireland by Queen Elizabeth, and a return visit to United Kingdom by President McAleese is likely. It's a challenge both McAleese's are up for.